852
FXUS63 KFSD 290930
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
330 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
25-35 MPH EXPECTED.
- PERIODS OF BLOWING AND/OR DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. WITH
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MAKE SURE TO
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN MAKING THOSE MORNING COMMUTE!
- COLD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE RANGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
- MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
A CHILLY DAY AHEAD! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH THE REMAINING
RETURNS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IA AS OF 2 AM. WHILE
AREAS IN NORTHWESTERN IA COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OR TWO OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LEAVE OUR AREA
BY 3-4 AM. FROM HERE, THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE BREEZIER
CONDITIONS. GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF UP TO
40 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
WEAKENING WITH AN APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH. THIS COMBINED WITH A
FRESH SNOWPACK OF 1-3 INCH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED BLOWING AND/OR
DRIFTING WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWESTERN MN AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHWESTERN IA. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS SPEEDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE;
CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT SNOW WON'T BE LOFTED ENOUGH TO CAUSE
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS THROUGH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NONETHELESS, THE COMBINATION OF SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS AND PERIODIC
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS COULD LEAD TO MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE SO MAKE SURE TO DRIVE TO THE CONDITIONS AND TAKE
SOME EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY. LOOKING INTO THE
REST OF THE DAY, NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND LINGERING COLD AIR
ADVECTION (CAA) WILL LEAD CHILLIER TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL START IN
THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE RANGE TO START THE DAY, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS WINDS WEAKEN AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE. OTHERWISE,
QUIETER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LASTLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS FOR
THE NIGHT.
LOOKING INTO THE MIDWEEK ONWARDS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY USHERING IN A FEW WAVES.
THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL SLIDE ACROSS MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY. A SECOND
WAVE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR PATH BY WEDNESDAY. WHILE BOTH WAVES COULD
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA,
THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND
WAVE. THIS SENTIMENT IS AGREE UPON IN THE ENSEMBLES WITH MOST
MEMBERS SHOWING LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE (20%-50%) IN AT LEAST
0.10" OF AN INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
BROOKINGS TO WORTHINGTON, MN TO SPENCER, IA LINE. FROM HERE, DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING
IN THE 20S TO 30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SNOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY, LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AND
NORTHWESTERN IA. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THIS AREA.
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR/IFR STRATUS WITH FALLING
SNOW.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 40 KNOTS INTO
TONIGHT, SLOWLY TAPERING DOWN MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS STILL AROUND 30 KNOTS EAST OF I-29 INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH NEW AND FALLING SNOW,
WILL LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY. OUTSIDE OF FALLING SNOW,
SHOULD SEE LOWER END VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY, WITH SOME IFR
BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-29.
MVFR STRATUS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW TAPER DOWN, VFR CONDITIONS BY/DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SDZ040-055-056-061-062-066-067-069>071.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ098.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-089-090-097.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ001-012-020>022-031-032.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR IAZ002-
003-013-014.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...SG
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