031
FXUS63 KFSD 080443
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1043 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUIET AND MILD AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A QUIET AND SEASONABLY
COLD NIGHT.
- THURSDAY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM YANKTON, TO SIOUX FALLS, TO MARSHALL MN.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN, AND CHANGE
TO A WINTRY MIX TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN THE
EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND MINIMAL TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
- A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING
SOUTH COLDER WINDS.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SCATTERED MID-TO-UPPER CLOUDS TODAY BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WAA IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL
LOCK IN AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THAT WILL PREVENT US
FROM TAPPING INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. AS A RESULT, WINDS AT
THE SURFACE TODAY WILL BE LIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20
LOOK TO MIX A LITTLE BIT BETTER AND MAY TAP INTO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT, GENERATING GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE WARM
FOR JANUARY, IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH A FEW AREAS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI RIVER COUNTIES TAKING A RUN AT 60. FOR
REFERENCE, AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S. THIS EVENING, A MID-LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION, BUT WITH VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF, I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.
THERE WILL BE A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT TO NORTHWESTERLY. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S.
FOR THURSDAY WE ZOOM OUT TO LOOK AT THE LARGER PATTERN AND SEE A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND EJECTS OUT ONTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. THIS RAPIDLY ACCELERATES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES, A PUSH OF WAA WILL HELP TO WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. LOWS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE MID TO LOW 20S.
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, AN AREA
OF INCREASING VORTICITY AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
OVER NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WILL PROVIDE THE
FORCING FOR RAIN THAT WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. THE QUESTION
REMAINS, HOW QUICKLY WILL THAT CHANGEOVER TAKE PLACE? THE MAJORITY
OF GUIDANCE INDICATES A FAST CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN, TO SLEET, TO ALL
SNOW. HOWEVER, THE NAM INDICATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WET BULB
TEMPERATURE REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING, WITH A GENERAL LACK OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND WARM AIR. CONSIDERING THIS AND THE RELATIVELY
WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM AFTERNOON HEATING, I DO NOT BELIEVE
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MUCH OF A THREAT. IF ANY, IT WILL BE A VERY
LIGHT GLAZE UP TO 0.01 INCHES FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
HIGHWAY 60. THE MORE LIKELY THREAT WILL BE WET ROADS FREEZING AS
TEMPERATURES DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET, AND RAIN TRANSITIONS TO
SNOW RESULTING IN SLICK SPOTS.
MOVING ON TO SNOW TOTALS. QPF HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THE
LATEST 07.12Z RUNS, BUT STILL A SWATH OF QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SIOUX CITY,
TO SPENCER IA. NBM SNOW-TO-LIQUID (SNL) RATIOS WERE A BIT ON THE LOW
SIDE WHEN CONSIDERING THE LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ THURSDAY EVENING.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS, HAVE BOOSTED THEM USING A BLEND
OF CONSSHORT AND NBM90TH. IN ADDITION, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
HEAVIER BAND TO SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE.
HERE TOTALS OF 1-1.5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE, WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 2 INCHES. AS WE MOVE NORTHWEST THE QPF DROPS OFF RAPIDLY,
AND SO DO SNOW TOTALS. WESTWARD EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW
COULD REACH AS FAR AS YANKTON, TO SIOUX FALLS, TO MARSHALL WITH
TOTALS OF A TRACE TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST A FEW
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. KEEP IN MIND, RAIN AND SNOW TOTALS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHEN THE TRANSITIONS TAKE PLACE, AND THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN GUIDANCE ON WHEN EXACTLY THAT WILL BE. WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE WELL REMOVED FROM THE AREAS OF HEAVIEST SNOW. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE WET AND HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ONLY BE A MINOR THREAT. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
WRAP AROUND SNOW ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE
MID-LEVELS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY SNOW FROM FORMING. HAVE KEPT
THINGS DRY FOR THIS REASON. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CAA
WILL COOL HIGHS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY INTO THE 30S, STILL ABOVE
THE UPPER 20 AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATURDAY WE SEE THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PIVOT OVER OUR AREA AND MOVE TO
THE EAST. AS IT DOES SO THE SURFACE LOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW, ONLY A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BUT WITH VERY STRONG VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND WAA, SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORS HAVE UPPED NBM POPS TO A
BROAD 20% FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90, WHERE WEAK RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 25-35 MPH. SO EVEN
THOUGH SNOW WILL BE LIGHT, SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY
ARE POSSIBLE WHILE SNOW IS FALLING. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES, IN THE 20S. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WE BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
CIGS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE
IMAGERY, MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING MVFR TO IFR STRATUS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW. TRIED TO TIME OUT ARRIVAL TIMES TO EACH
TAF SITE WITH HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, A DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER COULD FURTHER DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. LASTLY, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND BREEZY TO END
THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...05
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