359
FXUS63 KFSD 082335
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
535 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN TODAY HAS BEEN DELAYED BY A PERSISTENT DRY LAYER.
STILL EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS EAST OF I-29 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN SHOULD RAPIDLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
THIS EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT, GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH.
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WHILE SNOW IS
FALLING THERE MAY BE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE
UPCOMING FORECAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.
- DRY AND WARMING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID-
LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.
RAIN ONSET HAS BEEN DELAYED DUE TO A VERY STUBBORN LOW-TO-MID LEVEL
DRY LAYER THAT WAS SLOW TO SATURATE. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE ALL COME IN A BIT WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY, INDICATING A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WET BULB AND TEMPERATURE AT THE
SURFACE STAY ABOVE FREEZING AS THE COLUMN COOLS BEFORE FINALLY
DROPPING TO BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID CHANGEOVER
FROM RAIN TO ALL SNOW, MOST LIKELY AFTER 6PM CDT. WHILE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE CHANGEOVER TO MENTION THAT WHILE IT WILL
BE SHORT LIVED, FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION
OF ICE IS EXPECTED. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY FREEZING RAIN IS
SOUTHEAST OF THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR. THE MORE LIKELY THREAT WILL BE
SURFACES WET FROM RAIN QUICKLY FREEZING THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. SNOW TOTALS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON. EAST OF A LINE FROM IDA GROVE, TO SHELDON, TO WORTHINGTON
COULD SEE A TRACE TO AN INCH OF SNOW. WEST OF THERE TO BOUT THE I-29
CORRIDOR COULD SEE A DUSTING TO A TRACE. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS FOR TODAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 20S.
LOOKING ALOFT FRIDAY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT
OVER THE REGION. AS IT DOES SO LAPSE RATES AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL
INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. AS IT DOES SO, INSTABILITY WILL
ALSO INCREASE. BY FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING A BAND OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL WORK TO FORCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
SIMILAR TO TODAY, A STUBBORN DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB WILL LIMIT SNOW
POTENTIAL UNTIL IT MANAGES TO SATURATE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SATURATION (AND THEREFORE SNOW SHOWERS) TO BE MOST LIKELY NORTH OF I-
90 AND EAST OF I-29 FRIDAY EVENING. LOW QPF COMBINED WITH LOW SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS MEAN VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION, IF ANY. HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE TEENS AND 20S.
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, CAN EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON
BREEZY WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE
EAST THROUGH THE REGION. A STRONGER BAND OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS MODEST WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE VERY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD REGIONALLY. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH THESE, A DUSTING TO A
TENTH OR TWO. IN ADDITION, A VERY STRONG PUSH OF CAA SATURDAY WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION GUSTING 25-35 MPH.
STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, COMBINED WITH THE WINDS COULD RESULT
IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO TRAVEL
SATURDAY, PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN THE UPPER
20S. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. AREAS
WEST OF I-29 WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 40S, WARMEST TO
THE WEST. EAST OF I-29 HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE LOW 30S. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH A FEW LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD. TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY,
WE'RE STARTING TO SEE A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN IA. HOWEVER, SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THIS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION PUSH EASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS LEAVING BEHIND POCKETS OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IA. OTHERWISE, COULD SEE THE RETURN OF A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LASTLY,
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...05
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