154
FXUS63 KFSD 091740
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1140 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR FLURRIES TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
- SATURDAY REMAINS THE COLDEST DAY IN THE 7 DAY FORECAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S. A PERSISTENT WARMUP BEGINS SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK TO
THE 40S.
- A SHARP DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
THIS MORNING: UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SUBSIDING. AN AREA OF CLEARING
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA ALLOWING LOWS TO QUICKLY DROP TOWARDS
THE TEENS BY DAYBREAK WEST OF I-29.
TODAY: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TURN WESTERLY BY MID-DAY, AGAIN
PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND EVEN 40S. HOWEVER WE'RE
ALREADY SEEING THE SIGNS OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE FORM OF INCREASING MID-LVL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. MID-HIGH CLOUD SPREAD EASTWARDS THROUGH THE DAY,
BEFORE A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY LOWER CLOUDS ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF DPVA ARRIVES BY MID-AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REALLY
SHOW A STRUGGLE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND, SO
WILL GENERALLY LIMIT POPS TO SPRINKLES OR SLIGHT CHANCE.
TONIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS TOWARDS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT, DEEPENING QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS EAST.
STRONG LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION PASSING THROUGH NE SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE COTEAU DES PRAIRIES FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY: A SECOND AND MORE NARROW CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY DRIVEN PARTIALLY BY LOW-LVL FRONTOGENESIS BUT
ALSO ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE OF AN ELONGATED BAND OF MID-LVL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT A DUSTING TO HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD
BE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.
ELSEWHERE, SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING UPWARDS OF 875MB TAPPING
INTO A STRONGER CORE OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLOW. GIVEN JUST
MODEST COLD ADVECTION, WILL HEDGE WIND GUSTS SLIGHTLY TO THE
75TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM. HIGHS SATURDAY RISE IN TO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST QUICKLY SUNDAY ALLOWING
HEIGHTS TO RISE AND LOW LVL WARM ADVECTION SPREAD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE
INTO THE 30S AND 40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LACK OF SNOW COVER, DRY
FUELS, WARMING TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL PUSH GFDI LEVELS TOWARDS THE HIGH MARK AT TIMES.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN
FORMING ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE PASSAGE OF AN INITIAL UPPER TROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS BY TUESDAY. AS A DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO FORM OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 BY WEDNESDAY, WE'LL SEE INCREASING
RISKS OF ANOTHER SHORT SPELL OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD. A NARROW BAND
OF LOWER CEILINGS IS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR AT OR AROUND 9000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FORM, MOSTLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER COUNTIES. KSUX CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE THE ONLY SITE THAT COULD SEE SNOW. VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
A TRACE TO A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NORTHWESTERLY
GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...AJP
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