314
FXUS63 KFSD 100759
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
159 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MUCH COLDER SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LIGHT
SNOW PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL.
- TEMPERATURES WARM INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS WEEK MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER TO THE REGION.
- A LATE WEEK SHIFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE WIND TO THE REGION. AN UNCERTAIN RISK FOR SNOW
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
THIS MORNING/TODAY: A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN LOW-LVL FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER JET. THE RESULT HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN RADAR
ECHOES AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS LIFT WELL,
PUSHING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY MID-MORNING. A SECONDARY
ELONGATED BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AND DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
MORNING. WE'LL CONTINUE TO FIGHT SOME DRY AIR AS THIS FORCING
MOVES THROUGH, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO A DUSTING OR
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA,
CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING, WITH THE ONLY PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES IN THE WEST
RIVER AREAS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN
THE 20S, WITH WIND CHILLS DRIVEN BY 20-30 MPH GUSTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT, WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING CIRRUS
MAY SLOW THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES, BUT LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY: MID-LVL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES SUNDAY MORNING AS
VORTICITY TRAVELS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING
THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON
AND WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE BACK
THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 40S. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS REMAIN WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: MID-LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, AS ABOVE ZERO TEMPERATURES AT 850 SPREAD
AS FAR EAST AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH ONLY MID-UPR CLOUDS
IN THE REGION WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB THROUGH THE 40S AND MOVE
INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY. THE PERSISTENCE OF A MIXY SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WIND WON'T ALLOW LOWS TO COOL MUCH INTO TUESDAY. ESAT
TABLES INDICATE LOW- LVL TEMPERATURES SIT NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE WITH EFI/SOT MAX/MIN T INDEX VALUES
>0.9 SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES THAT WOULD
REPRESENT AN UNUSUAL OR EXTREME EVENT RELATIVE TO MODEL CLIMATE.
IN FACT, WE'LL SEE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM LOWS ON
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO SURGE
INTO THE 50S GIVEN FAVORABLE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. ANOTHER
THING TO MONITOR WILL BE INCREASING SURFACE WIND GUSTS THAT
COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AT TIMES EARLY THIS
WEEK.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER 48. THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY DROPS TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR
THE SEASONAL NORMALS ALONG WITH BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. WITH THE CWA SITTING UNDER THE PIVOT POINT OF
THE LONG WAVE RIDGE TROUGH, WE'LL SEE SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE
UNCERTAIN, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MAY ARRIVE BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY
LEADING TO INCREASED POPS EAST OF I-29 TO FINISH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD. TAKING A
LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, POCKETS OF FLURRIES CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-29 THIS EVENING. WHILE THIS HAS LEAD TO A
FEW MVFR CIGS WITH LOWER STRATUS, SHOULD SEE THINGS CLEAR OUT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FROM HERE, COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
FLURRIES TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MN. OTHERWISE,
PREDOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PERIODIC BREEZINESS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...05
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