475
FXUS63 KFSD 110446
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1046 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERALL VERY LOW CHANCES FOR ANY IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UNCERTAIN RISK FOR SNOW
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH.
- TEMPERATURES WARM INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS WEEK MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER TO THE REGION. A LATE WEEK SHIFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIND TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHILLY, BUT
STILL MAINLY NEAR NORMAL, LOWS TONIGHT WITH A QUICK REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS WARMING ALOFT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TRIES TO
BUILD TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL CREATE A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION
WHICH WILL NOT BE FULLY OVERCOME, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT GOT AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. HIGH ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 30S
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST AS WELL AS AREAS OF EASTERN
SD WITH SNOW COVER, WITH 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF I-29 THAT DO
NOT HAVE SNOW COVER. THIS INVERSION MAY HELP KEEP WINDS DOWN A BIT
AS THERE ARE SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, BUT FOR NOW EXPECTING GUSTS
TO MAINLY BE AROUND 20-25 MPH.
A WAVE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY, FURTHER ENHANCING WESTERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING MIXING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MILD MORNING LOWS IN
THE 20S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM ABOUT 45 TO 55, WARMEST IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ON TUESDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER MILD DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS LIKELY
AROUND 35 MPH. MORNING LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD, POSSIBLY RECORD
BREAKING WARM, AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA WHICH MEANS MORE
WIND AND UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES, THE UP BEING THURSDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL. THIS WAVE IS THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION,
BUT FOR NOW THOSE BETTER CHANCES REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA DUE TO SOME
STRATUS THAT IS ALSO PRODUCING VERY LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
IN THE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND LIGHTLY BREEZY
WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KTS. AREAS AT ELEVATION IN
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BUFFALO
RIDGE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS OF AROUND 25 KTS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...AJP
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