142
FXUS63 KFSD 111707
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1107 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARM INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING 15 TO
25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS WEEK MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER TO THE REGION.
- A LATE WEEK PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIND TO THE REGION. RISKS FOR LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
THIS MORNING: QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA AS STRATUS LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF SW MINNESOTA. A FEW
FLURRIES MAY LINGER IN THIS STRATUS, BUT WILL SHIFT EAST BY
DAYBREAK. FURTHER WEST WE'RE BEGINNING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-
HIGH CLOUD COVER IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW-LVL WARM ADVECTION
SPREADING EASTWARD.
TODAY/TONIGHT: LOW-LVL TEMPERATURES SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE REGION, WE
SHOULD STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S/40S WITH SOME
50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT,
EVEN SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AT TIMES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: WARM WESTERLY LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH STRONG SIGNALS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, AND AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING STRONGER COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE PLAINS,
BUT ALSO THE RISK FOR SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE INCREASE OF WIND GUSTS TUESDAY, WE'LL HAVE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE LOWER 48 FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TRI-
STATE AREA FALLING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WE'RE LIKELY
TO SEE CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE SWINGS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED, WE'LL WATCH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH, AND MOSTLY MERIDIONAL
FLOW, THIS WOULD FAVOR THE GREATEST LIGHT SNOW RISKS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ARE QUITE HIGH (>80%), BUT WHEN LOOKING AT MEANINGFUL
TOTALS MORE THAN 0.10" THOSE SAME PROBABILITIES FALL TO ONLY 30-40%.
QUITE A BIT OF WIND WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, WITH 40+ MPH
WIND POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND
20-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE WEAKENING AND TURNING MORE
WESTERLY TONIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SOME LLWS IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
MN AND NORTHWEST IA.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...08
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