707
FXUS63 KFSD 121742
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1142 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK. RECORD WARM LOWS REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL BY MID-WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS BY
NEXT WEEKEND ONLY IN THE TEENS TO 20S.
- SEVERAL WINDY DAYS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH WINDS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY INCREASING FIRE DANGER.
- INCREASING RISKS FOR LIGHT SNOW TOTALS ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COLLOCATED
WITH THE FALLING SNOW COULD LEAD TO REGIONAL TRAVEL CONCERNS
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THIS MORNING: WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS HAS
KEPT A CONSIDERABLE MID-UPR CLOUD DECK IN PLACE. DESPITE RADAR
ECHOES ACROSS THE CWA, A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW 10K FT AGL WILL
PROHIBIT ANY SPRINKLES FROM REACHING THE GROUND. LOWS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL AS WE BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.
MONDAY: A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS LOW-
MID LVL FLOW REMAIN WESTERLY. TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR WARM
AIR PUSHING WELL EAST, THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE A PERSISTENT
MID-UPR CLOUD DECK. NEVERTHELESS, HAVE BLENDED IN MUCH WARMER
HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS, WHICH IS A 3 TO 5 DEGREE UPWARDS BUMP.
TONIGHT: A WARM OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN
VERY MIXY AND A BLANKET OF CIRRUS REMAINS IN THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
TUESDAY: WE'LL START TUESDAY WARM ONCE AGAIN, WHICH WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY LOW-LVL FLOW, SHOULD LEAD TO QUICK
JUMPS IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING. ONE THING TO WATCH
WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MID-LVL VORTICITY TUESDAY MORNING INTO
CENTRAL SODAK, WHICH DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD VERY
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. HAVE BLENDED IN SOME CAM GUIDANCE TO INCREASE POPS
OVER THE DRY NBM. AFTERNOON WINDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS
THE 30+ MPH RANGE, ELEVATING FIRE DANGER ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY. STRONG LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION
MAY ALSO LEAD TO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
ALSO PUSHING WIND GUSTS TOWARDS THE 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.
WEDNESDAY: A QUIET BUT BREEZY DAY IS NOW EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ONTO
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. THE RESPONSE CLOSER TO HOME WILL BE A PRETTY
RAPID SHIFT IN WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
MINNESOTA LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE FINALLY ARRIVES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY, WITH INCREASING LIFT LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EAST OF I-29. QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT,
BUT WE'LL NEED TO WATCH THE THERMAL PROFILES CLOSELY GIVEN INCREASED
LOW-LVL WARM ADVECTION AND STILL COLD BOUNDARY LAYER. THE
BROADENING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW QPF HIGH POP SITUATION DEVELOPS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT (DUSTING TO 1-2"), HOWEVER
SLIGHTLY CONCERNING WILL BE THE INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AND
RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS. PROBABILITIES OF NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ON FRIDAY ARE OVER 50%, AND THESE WINDS WHEN COMBINED WITH FALLING
SNOW COULD LEAD TO REGIONAL TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. HAVE INCLUDED
BLOWING SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE DAY.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE AWAY FRIDAY EVENING,
WITH A COLD AND DRY WEEKEND ANTICIPATED. SATURDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO 20S, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS TAF PERIOD. BESIDES SOME HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE A SOME LLWS OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. OTHERWISE, A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY, COULD SEE SOME BREEZINESS AT
TIMES TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...DUX/05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page