049
FXUS63 KFSD 131718
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1118 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S (WARMEST TODAY). GUSTY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, INCLUDING AREAS OF VERY
HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH DAYS.
- LOW-MODERATE (30-60%) RAIN CHANCES TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING COULD LOCALLY EASE FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS, THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10" IN
MOST AREAS.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE (40-70%) IN LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ALONE WOULD PRODUCE
ONLY MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL, NEAR-ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS
35-50 MPH COINCIDENT WITH THE FALLING SNOW COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL TRAVEL CONCERNS ON FRIDAY.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: A TROUGH WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WILL DRAG A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA TODAY. WE ARE STARTING OFF ON A
VERY MILD NOTE WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
DECENT MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BY MIDDAY BEFORE READINGS
LEVEL OFF OR EVEN DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. COOLING MAY DEVELOP SOONER IN SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A TRAILING WAVE TRIGGERS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE MISSOURI TO JAMES RIVER VALLEYS LATE MORNING INTO
THIS EVENING. AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.10", WITH ONLY GREGORY COUNTY SEEING BETTER THAN A 50%
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 0.10" IN THE LATEST HREF DATA. WITH
RAINFALL OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST IN MOST AREAS, WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH AND FULLY CURED FUELS IN
SNOW-FREE AREAS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER WITH AREAS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT, AND WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW FLURRIES BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: BRIEF COOL-DOWN WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
BUBBLE OF WARMER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS, STRONGEST WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER COULD AGAIN REACH THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY.
BOTTOM LINE IS GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER, ANY BREEZIER DAY
SHOULD BE GIVEN EXTRA ATTENTION WITH REGARD TO FIRE CONCERNS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: THE WARM-UP THURSDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY PUSH OF
COLDER AIR BY LATE FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
EACH SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY (NBM
SHOWS MODERATE-HIGH/50-90% PROBABILITY OF GUSTS EXCEEDING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH ALONG/WEST OF I-29).
UNFORTUNATELY, THESE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS FAVOR SNOW
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS (HIGHEST TOWARD HIGHWAY 14 INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA), ANY FALLING SNOW WITH THE ANTICIPATED
STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED TRAVEL CONCERNS IN BLOWING
SNOW. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS FRIDAY SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: WINDS REMAIN BREEZY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS WE ARE EXPECTING ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS PRIOR TO SATURDAY, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS ALSO THE
PERIOD MOST FAVORED TO SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. MAY
HAVE TO WATCH FOR NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS EARLY SUNDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO.
NBM SHOWS TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY,
BUT THIS COULD DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IN
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS, BUT IF IT ARRIVES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS SEEN IN SOME SOLUTIONS, THEN CURRENT
NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO MID 30S MAY BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CIGS THIS TAF PERIOD. TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF SPRINKLES. WHILE THIS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IS
MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, CURRENT
THINKING IS THE BETTER CHANCES WILL STAY JUST WEST OF OUR AREA
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHWARDS.
OTHERWISE, VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. LASTLY,
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...05
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