357
FXUS63 KFSD 142045
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
245 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCATIONS EAST OF I-29 MAY SEE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX THURSDAY
MORNING. ANY SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER NEAR AND WEST OF I-29.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ALONE WOULD PRODUCE ONLY MINOR
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL, STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45-55 MPH WITH
ANY FALLING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
CHILLS AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
A QUIET BUT CHILLY AFTERNOON CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA! AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT, SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK
TO DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY PATCHY IN NATURE, SO MOST US WILL REMAIN
DRY. IF THIS PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW
AND THEN TURN TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM-UP THROUGH THE
MORNING; HOWEVER, COULD SEE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY
MIX/FREEZING RAIN BEFORE IT TURNS TO PLAIN RAIN. THIS POTENTIAL
FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF I-29.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THIS POTENTIAL AND THE
FACT THAT TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
AFTERNOON, ANY ICING IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. ADDITIONAL
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS AN UPPER-WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY AS WELL WHICH WILL AID IN THIS
POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ALL PLAIN RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. ONCE AGAIN, THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
WILL FAVOR ANY SHOWERS TO START AS RAIN AND THEN TURN TO SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL TOMORROW EVENING. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SOME 45+ KT WIND
GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-29, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH IN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS TO ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
REGARDLESS, BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY WEST OF I-29. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD ISSUES,
BUT ANY FIRE THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD SPREAD QUICKLY IN STRONG
WINDS.
WINDS LOOK TO GET EVEN STRONGER HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AS WE SEE CONTINUED STRONG PUSHES OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS LOOK TO GUST UP TO 55-65 MPH
OR HIGHER MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WATCH CONTINUES TO
REPRESENT THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF 58+ MPH WIND
GUSTS, BUT EXPANSIONS EASTWARD MAY BE NECESSARY AS WE CONTINUE
TO LOOK AT NEW HIGHER RESOLUTION DATA. WINDS COULD STILL GUST AS
HIGH AS 45-50 MPH AS FAR EAST AS I-29 ON FRIDAY, SO IT LOOKS TO
BE A WINDY DAY ALL AROUND. THE OTHER CONCERN ON FRIDAY WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS OR HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS TO
DEVELOP. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS
THAN AN INCH), BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WITHIN ANY AREAS OF SNOWFALL. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW WILL BE DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE, SO BE
PREPARED TO POTENTIALLY MAKE ANY TRAVEL ADJUSTMENTS FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE RAPIDLY FROM ONE PLACE TO ANOTHER.
SNOW CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWS BY SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL STAY
ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S BELOW ZERO MAINLY NORTH OF
I-90. FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A BIT HEADING INTO SUNDAY, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AS WELL,
THOUGH WE ARE TOO FAR OUT TO GET INTO SPECIFICS REGARDING
AMOUNTS. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO LOOKS TO BRING AN INCREASE IN
WIND GUSTS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER WEST YOU GO ACROSS THE
AREA. HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FAVORED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VERY SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW/WINTRY MIX SHOWERS LOOK TO SWING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY ACTIVITY. SHOULD ANY SHOWER RUN
THROUGH YOUR SITE OF INTEREST, THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A BRIEF DROP TO
MVFR CONDITIONS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS PICK UP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LLWS
CONCERNS TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY AT KHON BEFORE THE STRONGER
WINDS THERE MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SDZ050-052-057-058-063-064.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...SAMET
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