594
FXUS63 KFSD 300918
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
318 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES TO PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
MORNING MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL SD WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS.
- COLD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH COLDEST
CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-90.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES (60%-90%) FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED. WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW AND TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90.
- A BRIEF TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN BY LATE SATURDAY COULD
LEAD TO A FEW PATCHY SLICK SPOTS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
TODAY & TONIGHT: A MUCH COOLER DAY AHEAD! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE
AREA, CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO FILL IN THIS MORNING WITH POCKETS OF
FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL SD. WHILE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, THIS DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE-MORNING
GIVEN THE INCREASING FRONTAL FORCING AND DPVA WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS
MOST AREAS THIS MORNING AS THIS FAIRLY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH. NONETHELESS, IT WOULD BE A VERY NARROW CHANCE IF ANY
FOR ACCUMULATIONS. FROM HERE, COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) AND
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLDER SIDE FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW DOUBLE DIGITS. WITH THIS IN MIND, WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE -15
TO -25 DEGREE RANGE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS TONIGHT, EXPECT SIMILAR WIND CHILLS INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH VALUES IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE. IF YOU HAVE ANY EARLY
MORNING PLANS, MAKE SURE TO DRESS IN LAYERS AND LIMIT OUTDOOR TIME!
SATURDAY & SUNDAY: LOOKING INTO SATURDAY, THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
WILL START OFF QUIET AS SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THINGS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES (60%-90%) FOR LIGHT
SNOW. WHILE THE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE AREA-WIDE, THE MAIN DRIVER OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WITH A DEVELOPING NORTH TO SOUTH DEFORMATION
BAND THAT SETS UP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WHILE
MOST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH MY INITIAL ASSESSMENT, THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF THE BAND CAN HOLD ITSELF TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH OUR AREA WHICH HAS LED TO SOME
SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN OVERALL AMOUNTS. NONETHELESS, MOST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW ACCUMULATIONS ROUGHLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR
MOST AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF 2 INCHES WEST OF I-29.
WITH OVERALL AMOUNTS BEING SO LIGHT, ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED TO WHEN THE SNOW IS FALLING WHICH MEANS TEMPORARY
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED. AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90. LASTLY, COULD SEE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN
ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAINLY WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WITH A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE, MAKE SURE TO
DRIVE WITH CAUTIOUS AS PATCHY SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FROM
HERE, MOST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY
PROGRESSING OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. LOOKING INTO SUNDAY, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY GIVEN THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY LEVEL SATURATION DEPICTED IN SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER, AS DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILL THE COLUMN SHOULD SEE QUIETER CONDITIONS
RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON. LASTLY, INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA)
WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES TOWARDS OUR SEASONAL NORMALS HEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A SERIES OF WAVES
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE WAVES CURRENTLY EITHER LOOK
MOISTURE STARVED OR HAVE THEIR BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSET FROM OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE, DAILY HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE 20S TO 30S
CLOSER TO OUR SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
PARTS OF THE AREA WITH ONE OR TWO SITES SHOWING CEILINGS DOWN TO
MVFR LEVELS. LIGHT SNOW REMAINS ON TRACK TO SLIDE SOUTHWARDS THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT SNOW. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN MVFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS A
LINE OF MVFR STRATUS JUST BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THINK THIS MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. A STRAY FLURRY IS POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE STRATUS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FINISH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...MEYERS
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