312
FXUS63 KFSD 310441
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1041 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO FALL AS LOW AS -10 TO -20F INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE TRI-STATE
AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING SUNDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2" MOST LIKELY, WITH A TOUCH OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO THAW ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FAVORED
TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, HOWEVER
OCCASIONAL BOUTS WITH LIGHT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY,
INTO TUESDAY, AND LINGERING WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AT ALL
TIMES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 1 INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN MOST AREAS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING. A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MO RIVER
VALLEY INTO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT: TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AS WINDS FALL OFF AFTER
SUNSET. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE -5 TO -10 RANGE IN MANY AREAS. THE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVENT COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM
BEING MET, HOWEVER SOME AREAS MAY DROP TO -20F BY DAYBREAK.
SATURDAY: GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE ROCKIES AND MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS
WAVE MAY SPLIT AS IT ARRIVES, WITH AN INITIAL PUSH OF FORCING FROM
WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA INDUCING LIGHT SNOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT LAYERS OF
DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY SLOW THE TOP-DOWN SATURATION
IN THE AFTERNOON, ALSO LIMITING OVERALL ACCUMULATION. BY TIME THE
FIRST SPLIT OF VORTICITY MOVES EAST, A DUSTING TO 1" OF SNOW MAY BE
LEFT IN IT'S WAKE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS EXPERIENCING A
GROWING POTENTIAL FOR 30+ MPH WINDS. THESE WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE
BEFORE THE FALLING SNOW, LIMITING THE BLOWING SNOW RISKS. LATER IN
THE EVENING, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SECOND PIECE OF VORTICITY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST, WITH THE LOSS OF ICE IN THE SOUNDINGS, THIS WAVE
MAY INDUCE MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY ICING WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT, BUT COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED OR SNOW-LESS ROADS. AT THIS
POINT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOO LOW FOR ANY ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED,
HOWEVER WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE RISK INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
SHIFTING ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING MID-LVL TROUGH, WINDS MAY SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING AT LEAST A PARTIAL WARMUP BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: WE'LL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN STUBBORN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF
WARMER LOW-LVL TEMPERATURES, BUT ALSO BRINGING THE RISK FOR COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES NEARLY EVERY OTHER DAY. ONE SUCH COLD FRONT MAY
ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MID-LVL FLOW
PATTERN. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS QUITE SPLIT ON THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE STALLED
LOW-LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT PASSES BY. CURRENTLY THE FAVORED
PRECIPITATION TIME IN IN THE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, WHEN
SNOW UP TO 1" MAY BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: MID-LVL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE DURING THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A BIT FURTHER
INTO THE 30S AND EVEN 40S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE NOT
SIGNIFICANT, ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENT ENSEMBLES ONLY KEEP A 10-20%
PROBABILITY OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ALONG THE
BUFFALO RIDGE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL TURN SOUTHERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY TOMORROW
MORNING, THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT
20-30 KNOTS COME THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE SAME
PERIOD OF TIME THAT SNOW BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
SNOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS IN THE
FALLING SNOW DUE TO THE RATE AT WHICH THE SNOW IS FALLING AND THE
GUSTY WINDS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SNOW THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN A TAF AT THIS TIME. THE LIGHT SNOW, BREEZY WINDS, AND AT
LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL FINISH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...MEYERS
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