624
FXUS63 KFSD 311124
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
524 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE RANGE WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED BY
MID-MORNING.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A DUSTING TO 1 INCH
EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY-81 AND 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED WEST OF
THERE. TEMPORARY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
FALLING SNOW.
- POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD
PROMOTE A FEW PATCHY SLICK SPOTS INTO SUNDAY MAINLY EAST OF
I-29.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS OUR SEASONAL
NORMALS INTO THE NEW WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
TODAY & TONIGHT: ANOTHER COLD START AHEAD! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE
AREA, MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST
AREAS. WITH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
OVERHEAD, WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TO SIT IN THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE
RANGE. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK,
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE. FROM HERE,
SHOULD SEE LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUST BETWEEN 25-35 MPH EXPECTED. WITH
ALL THIS IN MIND, THE STAGE IS SET FOR OUR NEXT SYSTEM. LOOKING
ALOFT, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW.
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT IN A NORTH TO SOUTH
DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL SD AS 700 MB FRONTAL
FORCING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECT THIS DEVELOPING
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
(11AM TO 1PM) AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE I-29 CORRIDOR
MAINLY DUE TO WEAKENING FRONTAL FORCING. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 0.50" IN/HR ACCORDING TO THE HREF, CAN'T RULE
OUT A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF FRESH ACCUMULATIONS WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY-
81. HOWEVER, WEAKENING FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD SLOW ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE I-29 CORRIDOR BEFORE AN APPROACHING LOBE OF DPVA HELPS
CREATES ANOTHER UPTICK IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY LATE EVENING EAST OF
I-29. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF HIGHWAY-81, THE LOWER AMOUNTS COULD ALSO BE DUE TO THE LOSS
IN DGZ SATURATION DEPICTED IN THE SOUNDINGS. WITH THIS IN MIND,
COULD SEE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE START TO MIX INSTEAD OF ACTUAL SNOW
WHICH WOULD LOWER OVERALL AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE, ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE
KEPT TO A MINIMUM WITH SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND TEMPORARY
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY EXPECTED WITH FALLING SNOW/DRIZZLE. LASTLY,
SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY EXIT OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY ONWARDS: LOOKING INTO SUNDAY, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME ADDITIONAL FLURRIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO
A RIBBON OF VORTICITY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE
MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY SHIFT TOWARDS THE TEMPERATURES MOVING
FORWARD AS INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) HELP
OUR HIGHS APPROACH MORE SEASONAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN ABOUT A WEEK. WITH THIS IN MIND, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
IN THE 20S TO 30S FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
40S AND 50S BY THURSDAY. LOOKING ALOFT, BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL HELP CONTINUE THE "WAVE TRAIN" FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
NONETHELESS, OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER
LIMITED WITH OUR HIGHEST CHANCES (20%-30%) EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SWINGS THROUGH. WHILE SOME ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, 60%-90% CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE QPF (0.01" OF AN
INCH) ACCORDING TO THE ENSEMBLES DOESN'T EXACT INSPIRE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING BESIDES TRACE AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITIONS TO MVFR AND LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT OCCASIONAL LIFR CIGS
IN OUR HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS WITH STRATUS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS
SITS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LASTLY, SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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