953
FXUS63 KFSD 311923
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
123 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 2", WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ALONG OR WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
- POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, FREEZING SPRINKLES, SNOW, OR
SLEET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS OUR SEASONAL
NORMALS INTO THE NEW WEEK WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS AHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN AREA OF VORTICITY RACING SOUTHEAST AND TOWARDS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. THE TRACK OF THIS ENERGY MAY EDGE THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
NEARLY ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ALLOWS THE SNOW TO REACH I-29 BY 5-
6PM. SNOW TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STAY UNDER 1" IN MOST AREAS.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING 30+
MPH WINDS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
TONIGHT: THIS INITIAL AREA OF VORTICITY WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AND WITH LESS FORCING AND A SIGNIFICANT
DRY LAYER FURTHER EAST OF I-29, PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN TO
STRUGGLE AS IT MOVES EAST. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS EAST OF I-29 MAY
JUST BE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS. A BRIEF LULL IN ANY
PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE A SECONDARY
TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIFT, MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF 925:850MB WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST EVENTUALLY FOCUSING NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM DESMET
TO SIOUX CITY BY MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOUNDINGS THROUGH
THIS AREA SUGGEST ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE OF HAVING ICE PRESENT,
MEANING A MIXTURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
SPRINKLES/SNOW/SLEET COULD FALL AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT WILL USHER FORCING EASTWARD, ENDING
THE RISK BY MID-MORNIGN SUNDAY ALONG THE RIDGE. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT, AND IF WE CAN HAVE A HALF INCH OF SNOW FALL THEN
ICING IMPACTS WILL BE LESS NOTABLE. HOWEVER, IF ONLY A DUSTING
OF SNOW FALLS, THEN WE COULD HAVE SOME PROBLEMATIC ICING INTO
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON THE COVERAGE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO ISSUE AND ADVISORY, BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
SUNDAY: ANY LOW-LVL LIFT WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING, LEAVING
CONTINUING STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. WE'LL GRADUALLY
SEE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WARMER AIR OFF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. I'M
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN FULL ENSEMBLE SPREAD FROM 33 TO 42 DEGREES,
WITH THE PROBABILITY OF HIGHS GREATER THAN 35 IN SIOUX FALLS
SITTING AT 89%.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: MONDAY REMAINS DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AN
APPROACHING MID-LVL TROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INDUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH THIS AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE
STARVED WAVE WILL LEAD TO ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL TOTALS LESS THAN
1". TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO THE 20S ON TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS VERY QUIET WITH NO
MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT AGAIN ONLY BRINGS VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. BROAD
WARM ADVECTION SPREADING THROUGH THE PLAINS THE END OF THIS WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A SURGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
30S AND 40S. THE WARMEST DAY MAY END UP BEING FOCUSED AROUND
THURSDAY WITH LREF HISTOGRAMS SUGGESTING STRONG SUPPORT FOR HIGHS
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL IFR VISIBILITY. GREATEST
VISIBILITY IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE WEST OF I-29 FOCUSED ALONG THE
JAMES RIVER WESTWARD. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR FURTHER EAST MAY LIMIT
OVERALL SNOW POTENTIAL INTO MN/IA INTO THIS EVENING, WITH LESS
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
MORE UNCERTAINTY GROWS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS,
AS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, FREEZING
SPRINKLES, OR SNOW/SLEET. THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD,
BUT COULD LEAD TO IMPACTS ON RUNWAY SURFACES OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WITH
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...DUX
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