216
FXUS63 KFSD 010452
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1052 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, A DUSTING TO A
FEW TENTHS.
- POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, FREEZING SPRINKLES, SNOW, OR
SLEET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS OUR SEASONAL
NORMALS INTO THE NEW WEEK WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS AHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN AREA OF VORTICITY RACING SOUTHEAST AND TOWARDS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. THE TRACK OF THIS ENERGY MAY EDGE THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
NEARLY ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ALLOWS THE SNOW TO REACH I-29 BY 5-
6PM. SNOW TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STAY UNDER 1" IN MOST AREAS.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING 30+
MPH WINDS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
TONIGHT: THIS INITIAL AREA OF VORTICITY WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AND WITH LESS FORCING AND A SIGNIFICANT
DRY LAYER FURTHER EAST OF I-29, PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN TO
STRUGGLE AS IT MOVES EAST. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS EAST OF I-29 MAY
JUST BE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS. A BRIEF LULL IN ANY
PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE A SECONDARY
TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIFT, MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF 925:850MB WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST EVENTUALLY FOCUSING NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM DESMET
TO SIOUX CITY BY MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOUNDINGS THROUGH
THIS AREA SUGGEST ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE OF HAVING ICE PRESENT,
MEANING A MIXTURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
SPRINKLES/SNOW/SLEET COULD FALL AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT WILL USHER FORCING EASTWARD, ENDING
THE RISK BY MID-MORNIGN SUNDAY ALONG THE RIDGE. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT, AND IF WE CAN HAVE A HALF INCH OF SNOW FALL THEN
ICING IMPACTS WILL BE LESS NOTABLE. HOWEVER, IF ONLY A DUSTING
OF SNOW FALLS, THEN WE COULD HAVE SOME PROBLEMATIC ICING INTO
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON THE COVERAGE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO ISSUE AND ADVISORY, BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
SUNDAY: ANY LOW-LVL LIFT WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING, LEAVING
CONTINUING STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. WE'LL GRADUALLY
SEE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WARMER AIR OFF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. I'M
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN FULL ENSEMBLE SPREAD FROM 33 TO 42 DEGREES,
WITH THE PROBABILITY OF HIGHS GREATER THAN 35 IN SIOUX FALLS
SITTING AT 89%.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: MONDAY REMAINS DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AN
APPROACHING MID-LVL TROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INDUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH THIS AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE
STARVED WAVE WILL LEAD TO ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL TOTALS LESS THAN
1". TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO THE 20S ON TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS VERY QUIET WITH NO
MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT AGAIN ONLY BRINGS VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. BROAD
WARM ADVECTION SPREADING THROUGH THE PLAINS THE END OF THIS WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A SURGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
30S AND 40S. THE WARMEST DAY MAY END UP BEING FOCUSED AROUND
THURSDAY WITH LREF HISTOGRAMS SUGGESTING STRONG SUPPORT FOR HIGHS
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW PUSHES EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY, THEN TAPERING OFF EAST OF
HIGHWAY 60 BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
SLEET. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THAT THIS HAS BEEN
COVERED BY PROB30 GROUPS FOR KFSD AND KSUX. CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG
AROUND MOST OF THE DAY AS THE MAIN WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DIRECTIONAL AND 35 KT SPEED LLWS AT KHON IS POSSIBLE
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, COINCIDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...AJP
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