612
FXUS63 KFSD 011118
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
518 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY-81. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A TENTH OR TWO POSSIBLE.
- A FEW PATCHY SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR WINTRY MIX CONTINUE SO
DRIVE WITH CARE IF YOU HAVE ANY MORNING PLANS!
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS OUR SEASONAL
NORMALS INTO THE NEW WEEK WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS AHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
TODAY & TONIGHT: A MORE SEASONABLE DAY AHEAD! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS
THE AREA, WE'RE STARTING TO SEE ANOTHER UPTICK IN SNOW COVERAGE THIS
MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY-81 MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING
DPVA WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY. WHILE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED, NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW MORE TENTHS ACROSS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS. FROM HERE, WE'RE STILL ON TRACK TO LOSE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) SATURATION IN THE COMING HOURS ACCORDING
TO SOUNDINGS SO EXPECT POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR WINTRY MIX
TO MIX IN WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WITH THIS IN MIND, BE PREPARED FOR A FEW PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ON
UNTREATED SURFACES AND ROADWAYS TO START THE DAY. NONETHELESS, THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE
INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE DAY WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. LASTLY, NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH
POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW PATCHY AREAS
OF DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: LOOKING INTO THE NEW WEEK, BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT INTO MONDAY KEEPING THE "WAVE TRAIN" GOING
THROUGH MIDWEEK. OUR NEXT CLIPPER WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCES (30%-50%)
FOR LIGHT SNOW. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, MOST AREAS SHOULD
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. THIS SENTIMENT IS
ALSO AGREED UPON IN THE ENSEMBLES WITH BOTH THE GEFS, GEPS, AND
GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWING 40%-70% CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST 0.25" OF INCH
OF SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, UNLIKE THIS LAST EVENT; THERE WON'T BE ANY
WINDS TO FOLLOW IT SO THE MAIN IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WITH FALLING SNOW. OTHERWISE, QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY. LASTLY, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.
THURSDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE WEEK WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE, WE'LL CONTINUE OUR STRING OF MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S INTO
WEEKEND WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS SET FOR THURSDAY WHERE HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 40S TO 50S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD. TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA,
POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WHILE THIS HAS LED TO OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND
CIGS, AN APPROACHING STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY SIT OVER THE AREA
TODAY LEADING TO MOSTLY MVFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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