087
FXUS63 KFSD 021738
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1138 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
(A DUSTING OR LESS). A TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
- WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEM AHEAD OVER THE NEXT WEEK, EXPECT MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
TODAY & TONIGHT: A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY AHEAD! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS
THE AREA, A DREARY START CONTINUES AS LOWER-LEVEL CLOUDS (STRATUS)
CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE AREA THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WE
SHOULD KEEP OVERCAST SKIES AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, OUR
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A LOT LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE, THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN QUIET AS TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 30S FOR THE DAY WITH THE COOLEST CONDITIONS NORTH
OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE, IA LINE. BY THE SECOND HALF
OF THE DAY, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON PROMOTING INCREASED SNOW CHANCES (20%-30%)
FROM THE EARLY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH QPF EXPECTED
REMAINING BELOW 0.10" OF AN INCH, MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT A DUSTING OR
LESS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THE START OF TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES DECREASE INTO THE LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S FOR THE
NIGHT.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: LOOKING INTO TUESDAY, A SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING ANY DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SD. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THRESHOLDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP USHER
IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES APPROACH THEIR WARMEST
POINTS FOR THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY SLIGHTLY DECREASING OUR TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND: HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SHIFTING US BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ALOFT WITH
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGING THROUGH BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES (<10%). HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER IN 30S TO MID 40S THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE QUIETER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
MVFR/IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS IS COVERING ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT
SNOW/UNKNOWN PRECIP (UP) HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR ALONG HIGHWAY-14. THESE ECHOES WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD BUT LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THEM. THE
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE MORE ISOLATED BEGINNING COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION, HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM
ALL TAFS AND INSTEAD HAVE GONE WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR LIGHT SNOW.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PUSH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT, EXITING THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL
LEAVE MVFR CEILINGS SLOWLY RISING TO VFR LEVELS TO FINISH OUT THE
TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...MEYERS
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