719
FXUS63 KFSD 022022
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
222 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND NIGHT. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
ALL SNOW. SNOWFALL AND ICE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY.
- WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEM AHEAD OVER THE NEXT WEEK, EXPECT MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. HOWEVER, A PATTERN CHANGE COULD
LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO SIT OVER ABOUT HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ALONG
HIGHWAY-14 AND PUSHING EASTWARDS. THINGS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES OUT FROM NORTH DAKOTA,
DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BEGIN AS VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE
QUICKLY SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW AS THE COOLING FROM THE WAVE
SATURATED THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) A LITTLE MORE. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND MAJORITY OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING. ICE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH ISOLATED ICE AMOUNTS OF A LIGHT GLAZE AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. NO WIND IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FALLING SNOW, SO SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED, DOWN
TO ABOUT ABOUT A MILE AT THE WORST.
TUESDAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER,
ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT,
MAKING FOR A CALM WINTER DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WILL BE DRY, NEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
SATURATED BUT THE DGZ LOOKS TO DRY OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OMEGA (UPWARD MOTION) IS ALSO WEAK IN AND AROUND THE DGZ. THE
OVERALL WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT TIMES. AT THE SAME TIME,
ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AGAIN BE QUITE LIGHT AT BELOW A HALF AN
INCH. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME OF THE FALLING SNOW, NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO THE EVENING COMMUTE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY
ALOFT AND TRANSLATE EASTWARDS. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO THE
20S, 30S, 40S, AND EVEN 50S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL COME ON
THURSDAY AS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. HOWEVER, MARGINALLY
BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL A BIT COOLER.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE TEENS AND 20S OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT TO MARGINALLY BREEZY WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
SLIGHTLY COOLER APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
THE ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THE PREVIOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTING
AND CONTINUING TO SHIFT EASTWARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES GOING
DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME. THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM
TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS THE COLDEST OF THE TWO. AS OF NOW,
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S, 40S, AND 50S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR NEXT MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S. WITH THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINING INITIALLY DOWNSTREAM AND THEN DIRECTLY UNDER
THE RIDGE, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. COULD SEE THE PATTERN BEGIN
TO CHANGE TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
ENSEMBLES AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC COUNTER PARTS ARE SUGGESTING THAT
TROUGHING COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH RIDGING
CONTINUING TO SLIDE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS COULD
SIGNAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WELL AFTER
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DETAILS REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN BUT
IS SOMETHING TO WATCH THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
MVFR/IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS IS COVERING ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT
SNOW/UNKNOWN PRECIP (UP) HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR ALONG HIGHWAY-14. THESE ECHOES WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD BUT LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THEM. THE
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE MORE ISOLATED BEGINNING COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION, HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM
ALL TAFS AND INSTEAD HAVE GONE WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR LIGHT SNOW.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PUSH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT, EXITING THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL
LEAVE MVFR CEILINGS SLOWLY RISING TO VFR LEVELS TO FINISH OUT THE
TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MEYERS
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