221
FXUS63 KFSD 040452
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1052 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND PART OF TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL.
SNOWFALL AND ICE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH OR TWO AT THE MOST.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
- NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED, KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME FLURRIES PERSIST BENEATH THE LOW
LEVEL STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRATUS CONTINUING TO SIT IN
PLACE, HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY WARMED TO THE TEENS AND 20S.
STILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT, MAINLY WEST OF I-
29. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS ONLY UP TO A TENTH OR
TWO AT THE MOST. SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE IN
THE FALLING SNOW. ANY CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE COMING TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY-18 TOMORROW MORNING.
ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DOES OCCUR MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED PATCHES
OF A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE TEENS AND
20S OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN THE TREND TOWARDS WARMER TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOUT -8C TO -2C ALOFT. MIXING THESE
TEMPERATURES TO THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S TO MID 30S, WARMEST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS SAME PERIOD OF TIME. WHILE THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, MARGINALLY BREEZY WINDS
WILL SHOULD LIFT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S OVERNIGHT.
THE END OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK WARM AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLIDES A BIT MORE EASTWARDS. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES CELSIUS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
MIXING THESE TEMPERATURES TO THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO EVEN 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTED BY A PLETHORA OF
NEWER MODELS AS THEY SHOW A 60-100% FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED
50F ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THESE MODELS INCLUDE THE AI
GFS ENSEMBLE, THE HYBRID GFS ENSEMBLE (HGEFS), THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS (NBM) AND THE RAPID ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (REFS). FRIDAY
WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS THURSDAY DUE TO A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA. HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY FALL TO THE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT.
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS THE RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES A LITTLE BIT. NONETHELESS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
50S IS LIKELY. THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS AS THEY SHOW A 40-60%
CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 50F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GO ALONG WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WARMTH ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE,
ONLY FALLING TO THE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT.
NO BREAK IN THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 40S AND 50S AS SUPPORTED BY THE
ENSEMBLES (40-70% CHANCE FOR HIGHS TO EXCEED 50F ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-90). THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL COME ON MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A MIX OF VFR DOWN TO IFR CEILINGS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. SNOW WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A DUSTING
TO A TENTH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT
EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO KNOW ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS
EXPECTED. STILL, SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS ON RUNWAYS ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE WAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BY MID-MORNING WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY
WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...AJP
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