240
FXUS63 KFSD 040918
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
318 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED FLURRIES ALONG WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE
AND A TENTH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND
MONDAY.
- WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEM AHEAD INTO THE NEW WEEK, EXPECT MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
TODAY-THURSDAY: ANOTHER DREARY DAY AHEAD! SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS, LOWER-LEVEL CLOUDS (STRATUS) CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH POCKETS OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY THOUGH, WE'RE SEEING MORE OF A TRUE MIX OF THE TWO AS WE
GO IN AND OUT OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ). AS A
RESULT, DECIDED TO INCREASE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST LATE-MORNING (10AM-12PM). WITH ALL THIS
IN MIND, A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ALONG WITH AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OR TWO
OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WE COULD SEE THE BRIEF RETURN OF SUNSHINE BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS OUR PERSISTENT STRATUS LAYER FINALLY BEGINS TO
THIN OUT HELPING TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR THE
DAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION (WAA) WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE THIS EVENING LEADS TO
ANOTHER PUSH OF ALTOSTRATUS AND CIRRUS.
BY TONIGHT, WHILE A FEW ADDITIONAL FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN; SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 5KFT
LAYER OF DRIER AIR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS.
NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 20S. HEADING INTO THURSDAY,
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS LINGERING
WAA MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE HELPING HIGHS APPROACH THE 40S TO MID
50S FOR THE DAY WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. OTHERWISE, A TIGHTENING SPG WILL HELP INCREASE NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
LASTLY, THE MORE MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS LOWS GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
THE WEEKEND ONWARDS: LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN LEADING
TO A RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING SLIGHTLY AFFECTING THE
RESULTING TEMPERATURES OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
HIGHS WILL TEMPORARILY DECREASE INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY FRIDAY; BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER TO THE 40S AND 50S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
ADDITIONAL RIDGING PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE A FEW WAVES
WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL, LIMIT MOISTURE WILL KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY AS HIGHS APPROACH THE SPRING-LIKE 50S AND 60S. HOWEVER, AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY
COOL OUR TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S DAILY HEADING INTO THE
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A MIX OF VFR DOWN TO IFR CEILINGS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. SNOW WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A DUSTING
TO A TENTH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT
EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO KNOW ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS
EXPECTED. STILL, SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS ON RUNWAYS ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE WAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BY MID-MORNING WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY
WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...AJP
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