895
FXUS63 KFSD 042047
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
247 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY LOW (<15%) CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WHEN
THERE IS A 40-70% CHANCE OF HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
- WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEM AHEAD INTO THE NEW WEEK, EXPECT MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH ONLY LOW (15-30%) CHANCES OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
IT'S BEEN A DREARY, BUT SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY ON THIS TUESDAY. A
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO FADE OVER THE AREA, WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA GRADUALLY ERODING. THIS
EROSION GRADUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, SO
YOU MAY SEE SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE JUST BEFORE IT SETS. FOR TONIGHT,
A SURFACE LOW OVER CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA,
BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA)
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THAT WILL
PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THE COLUMN WILL AT
LEAST MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO SATURATE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW, BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO LITTLE TO LATE. IF THERE IS
PRECIPITATION THAT MAKES IT THE GROUND, IT WILL EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND IS LESS THAN 15%. SPEAKING OF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAA WILL MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AND EVEN WARM UP SOME DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO ANY IMPACTS FROM FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW. TOMORROW WILL
BE A MILD DAY AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TOMORROW TO RANGE FROM THE MID-50S IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE LOW-40S OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER STRATUS
DECK DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON TO
MITCHELL TO SIOUX CITY LINE. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS WILL OCCUR
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND THIS WHERE THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ANYWAY. HOWEVER, IF THIS DEVELOPS
FARTHER WEST, THEN TEMPERATURES MAY END UP COOLER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST AS FAR WEST AS THE I-29 CORRIDOR. EITHER WAY,
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
THERE ARE STILL JUST SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE
UPPER-40S AND LOW-50S WILL BE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, BRINGING IN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR AREA HEADING INTO FRIDAY.
COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITH THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH
ON THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUD LAYER AND SO DID NOT ADD ANY DRIZZLE
MENTION TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AS IS THE CASE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES CLOSELY IF ANY DRIZZLE
OCCURS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE (30-60%) OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A DE SMET TO PIPESTONE TO JACKSON LINE
FRIDAY MORNING. ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL THOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREA-WIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-30S TO LOW-40S EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR WHAT WILL BE ONE OF
THE CHILLIER NIGHTS OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOWS DROPPING TO
THE LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S SATURDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY, AND AN UPPER-WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT. NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID-30S
OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE LOW-50S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. ON SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-40S TO UPPER-50S,
WARMEST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
MONDAY LOOKS TO TAKE THE CAKE WARM TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN WITH HIGHS INTO THE 50S AREA-WIDE. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW-60S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY, WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS IN THE 60S AROUND 50-80% IN
THESE AREAS, AND AS HIGH AS ABOUT A 25% CHANCE AS FAR NORTHEAST AS A
HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE LINE. WE DO LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AS
WELL, SO IF YOU LIKE WARM TEMPERATURES, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
DAY TO GET OUTSIDE! OF COURSE, THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, SO
THIS FORECAST WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER. EITHER WAY, THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE (15-30%) OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPES (WE COULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PLAIN RAIN) AND ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL EVEN BE AVAILABLE IN THE FIRST PLACE FOR
PRECIPITATION. SO BE SURE TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST. OTHERWISE, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF LOW-
LEVEL STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-
29, BUT CHANCES FOR CEILINGS DROPPING BACK TO MVFR OR LOWER ARE
LOW (10-25%) AT THE TAF SITES. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT FOR LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, DRY
AIR SHOULD LIMIT THIS ACTIVITY FROM REACHING THE GROUND, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESS THAN 15% OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH WILL BE
CHANGING DIRECTION A FEW TIMES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
HEADING INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO 20-25 KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
WEST OF I-29.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...SAMET
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