224
FXUS63 KFSD 182325
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
525 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-90 UNTIL 6 PM. STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT CRITICALLY LOW VALUES OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (20% OR LESS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGHWAY-20.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA. WE ARE LOOKING TO GENERALLY SEE 2-5" OF SNOW
IN THESE AREAS.
- A NARROW, HEAVIER SNOWBAND OF 5-7+" MAY DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND WILL
LIKELY SHIFT AROUND AND MAY EVEN STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT
RIGHT NOW IS FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SIOUX CITY TO
SPENCER LINE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AVOIDED AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE BELOW 25% ESPECIALLY NEAR
HIGHWAY-20 WHERE A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER REMAINS. THIS FIRE
DANGER WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER. TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S TONIGHT, COLDEST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
HIGHWAY-14 WHEREVER SNOW FELL TODAY. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO OUR
NEXT STORM SYSTEM, WHICH IS DISCUSSED BELOW.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW AND THEN PIVOT NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES TOMORROW NIGHT. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE SNOW WILL REACH THE
HIGHWAY-20 CORRIDOR IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THERE. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY TO OUR EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. IT'S CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE THE GREATEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA, WHERE A BROAD 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING AT 6 AM TOMORROW FOR AREAS WEST OF THE SIOUX
CITY METRO AND THEN STARTING AT NOON ALONG AND EAST OF THERE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EITHER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA OR JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF US. THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND IS WHERE THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THIS FORECAST, BUT IF IT DOES SET-UP OVER
OUR AREA, THEN A NARROW STRIPE OF 5-7+" WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE. THE AREA TO WATCH FOR THESE HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE FROM ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER LINE. IF CERTAINTY
GROWS AS TO WHERE THIS NARROWER BAND SETS UP, THEN UPGRADES TO
WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EITHER WAY, BREEZY
CONDITIONS WHEN EVEN LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES, SO BE SURE TO USE
EXTRA CAUTION ON THE ROADS. WINDS DON'T LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS
WHAT WE'VE SEEN TODAY, BUT COULD STILL GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER FARTHER
EAST, GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. THIS WILL
MEAN THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OFFSET FROM THE HEAVIEST SNOW
POTENTIAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY BECAUSE IF WINDS LOOK TO BE A BIT STRONGER
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THEN BRIEF NEAR-
WHITEOUT TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY WITH NORTHERN EXTENT AS DRY AIR
TRIES TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL
FORCING BECOMES WEAKER. THIS WILL LEAD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS
FAR NORTH AS THE I-90 CORRIDOR TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN INCH,
EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS ALONG I-90 THAT ARE ALSO EAST OF
HIGHWAY-75 IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.
COLDER TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
AND 30S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MORNING LOWS RETURNING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM TO DEAL WITH LIKELY
NOT MOVING IN UNTIL MID-WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DETAILS WITH THIS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MVFR STRATUS REMAIN
ALONG HIGHWAY-14 EARLY THIS EVENING THOUGH THIS STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO FADE AWAY IN TIME. THIS WILL LEAVE MARGINALLY BREEZY WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS VEERING FROM OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING TO MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH BY TOMORROW
MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL SITTING AT MVFR/IFR/LIFR LEVELS. AS OF NOW,
THE STRATUS LOOK TO LIFT TO MVFR LEVELS COME THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL. WHILE
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90 CAN STILL SEE SNOW, IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK
LIKE SNOW WILL MAINLY AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND AROUND THE HIGHWAY-
20 CORRIDOR. THUS, HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT SNOW IN KSUX'S TAF FOR NOW.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THE SNOW'S PLACEMENT THIS EVENING AND
NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
NEAR HIGHWAY-20 WHERE WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS CLOSER TO THE 15-20% RANGE. THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES BEGIN TO RECOVER. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW
HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS SNOW CHANCES
RETURN THURSDAY AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-
057>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR SDZ071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SDZ050-063-068>070.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ089-090-
098.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NEZ014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ013.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...SAMET
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