851
FXUS63 KFSD 191912
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
112 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WE'LL
GENERALLY SEE AROUND 1-3" OF SNOW FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A SIOUX CITY TO STORM LAKE LINE, WITH A COUPLE OF
SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING 4 INCHES SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 20.
- THE EXPECTED NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW HAS SHIFTED A BIT
FARTHER NORTH, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES OF IT
IMPACTING OUR AREA ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 DURING THE
EVENING COMMUTE. IF IT DOES LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH, LOCALIZED
AREAS OF 5-7" SNOW TOTALS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE MONDAY WHERE WE
LOOK TO SEE LOWS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
RADAR AROUND 1 PM TODAY IS PICKING UP ON A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE HIGHWAY-20 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE GROUND AS THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD REMAINS
HIGH NEAR THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATE AS THIS PRECIPITATION FALLS AND SO SNOW WILL LIKELY
START REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE 12Z
SUITE OF CAMS HAVE COME IN WITH A SLIGHT NORTHERLY SHIFT IN
WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW ENDS UP WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH
MOST MODELS STILL KEEP THE 6+ INCH OF SNOW POTENTIAL JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO BRING THE HEAVIEST
SNOW THE FARTHEST NORTH. WITH THAT, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
THAT SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY-20, WITH AT LEAST AROUND 2-4" OF SNOW EXPECTED
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. THE HRRR/RAP SHOW AROUND 6-9" OF SNOW IN
THESE AREAS (ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN IDA COUNTY). 8 OR 9"
CERTAINLY CAN'T BE RULED OUT (<10% CHANCE OF OCCURRING), BUT IF
WE DO END UP SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS, WE'D BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
TOTALS OF UP TO 5-7" (20-40% CHANCE). THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THIS BAND MAKING IT
FARTHER NORTH. BUT AS OF NOW, THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. IF THIS HEAVIER
BAND MAKES IT INTO THE AREA, THE TIMING FOR THIS WILL BE
ROUGHLY 5 PM TO 11 PM, AND SO IT WOULD CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR
THIS EVENING'S COMMUTE. BE SURE TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST AND YOUR LOCAL ROAD CONDITIONS! KEEP IN MIND
THAT HERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT ESPECIALLY AS YOU START GETTING NORTH OF A
SIOUX CITY TO STORM LAKE LINE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS THE SNOW EXITS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO FLURRIES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 INTO THE MID-
MORNING TOMORROW. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A
QUIET AND SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW OVERALL WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB MAINLY INTO THE 20S. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT AMPLE DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW WITH IT AT THIS TIME. SO SATURDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS WE START TO SEE MORE SPOTS REACHING THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ESPECIALLY IN SNOW-FREE AREAS. THIS SLIGHT
WARM-UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS A 1045 MB HIGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 20S FOR THE MOST
PART. WE'LL SEE THE GREATEST EFFECTS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO SEE
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR THE MOST PART. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR WHERE LOWS COULD
DROP DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT WINDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT MONDAY MORNING, SO NOT
EXPECTING WIND CHILLS TO DROP TOO MUCH FURTHER THAN THE ACTUAL
AIR TEMPERATURE.
WE WARM THINGS UP QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY
IMPACTING SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS WHERE WE COULD SEE
HIGHS CLIMB NEAR 40 DEGREES. THIS IS ALSO WHERE WE WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS MONDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE.
THESE BREEZY WINDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 30% IN THESE AREAS MAY LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, SO THAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON. FARTHER EAST WILL FEEL A LITTLE LESS EFFECTS
FROM THE WAA, BUT STILL LOOKING SEASONALLY NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AND WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15-20 MPH.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NBM AND OTHER ENSEMBLES
THAT WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS INCLUDES THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 60S ON TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THESE EXACT NUMBERS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK, BUT IF YOU'RE WISHING FOR THE RETURN OF
SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK, YOU MAY BE IN LUCK. OUR NEXT
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ON PRECIPITATION
TYPES AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. IF IT'S
MAINLY OVERNIGHT, THEN IT MAY LEAN TOWARDS BEING MORE SNOW. BUT
IF IT'S MORE DURING THE DAYTIME, THEN IT COULD LEAN TOWARDS
RAIN. EITHER WAY, IT'S A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM AND MAJOR IMPACTS
LOOK UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD AS A WINTER STORM APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SNOWFALL IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THE SNOW SLIGHTLY NORTH
THIS MORNING, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD TREND LAST NIGHT. THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN REMAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
SIOUX CITY TO STORM LAKE IOWA. HERE, SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES, AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR. TIMING OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO
BE BETWEEN 5-11 PM. RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY IMPACT FLIGHT
OPERATIONS AT KSUX DURING THIS TIME. KFSD MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS
WELL AFTER 00Z, BUT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, A TRACE TO
A TENTH OR TWO. KHON MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
NOT EXPECTED.
WINDS ARE NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY GUSTING BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.
HIGHEST GUSTS ARE ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN BREEZY GUSTING 15-20 KTS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY IMPACT
VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ021-
022-031-032.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ014.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...AJP
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