517
FXUS63 KFSD 200845
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
245 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO
THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.
- MORE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES RETURN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITIES (20%-40%) OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, THE MAIN AREA OF SNOWFALL CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN-MOST ZONES (IDA & BUENA
VISTA COUNTIES) THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, LINGERING DENDRITIC GROWTH
SATURATION WITHIN LOW STRATUS HAS LED TO PERIODS OF "INSTA-FLURRIES"
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT AT BEST, DECIDED TO ADJUST OUR POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED
FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED IMPACTS. FROM
HERE, ANOTHER CHILLY DAY IS AHEAD AS LINGERING COLD AIR ADVECTION
(CAA) AND NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES CAPPED TO
THE LOW TO UPPER 20S FOR THE DAY. WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS ADDING A
LITTLE BITE TO THE CONDITIONS, MAKE SURE TO KEEP THOSE JACKET AND
GLOVES HANDY ESPECIALLY WHEN MAKING THOSE MORNING COMMUTES!
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO 30S. LASTLY, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW ADDITIONAL FLURRIES WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
RADAR AROUND 1 PM TODAY IS PICKING UP ON A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE HIGHWAY-20 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE GROUND AS THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD REMAINS
HIGH NEAR THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATE AS THIS PRECIPITATION FALLS AND SO SNOW WILL LIKELY
START REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE 12Z
SUITE OF CAMS HAVE COME IN WITH A SLIGHT NORTHERLY SHIFT IN
WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW ENDS UP WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH
MOST MODELS STILL KEEP THE 6+ INCH OF SNOW POTENTIAL JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO BRING THE HEAVIEST
SNOW THE FARTHEST NORTH. WITH THAT, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
THAT SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY-20, WITH AT LEAST AROUND 2-4" OF SNOW EXPECTED
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. THE HRRR/RAP SHOW AROUND 6-9" OF SNOW IN
THESE AREAS (ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN IDA COUNTY). 8 OR 9"
CERTAINLY CAN'T BE RULED OUT (<10% CHANCE OF OCCURRING), BUT IF
WE DO END UP SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS, WE'D BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
TOTALS OF UP TO 5-7" (20-40% CHANCE). THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THIS BAND MAKING IT
FARTHER NORTH. BUT AS OF NOW, THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. IF THIS HEAVIER
BAND MAKES IT INTO THE AREA, THE TIMING FOR THIS WILL BE
ROUGHLY 5 PM TO 11 PM, AND SO IT WOULD CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR
THIS EVENING'S COMMUTE. BE SURE TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST AND YOUR LOCAL ROAD CONDITIONS! KEEP IN MIND
THAT HERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT ESPECIALLY AS YOU START GETTING NORTH OF A
SIOUX CITY TO STORM LAKE LINE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS THE SNOW EXITS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO FLURRIES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 INTO THE MID-
MORNING TOMORROW. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A
QUIET AND SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW OVERALL WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB MAINLY INTO THE 20S. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT AMPLE DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW WITH IT AT THIS TIME. SO SATURDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS WE START TO SEE MORE SPOTS REACHING THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ESPECIALLY IN SNOW-FREE AREAS. THIS SLIGHT
WARM-UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS A 1045 MB HIGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 20S FOR THE MOST
PART. WE'LL SEE THE GREATEST EFFECTS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO SEE
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR THE MOST PART. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR WHERE LOWS COULD
DROP DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT WINDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT MONDAY MORNING, SO NOT
EXPECTING WIND CHILLS TO DROP TOO MUCH FURTHER THAN THE ACTUAL
AIR TEMPERATURE.
WE WARM THINGS UP QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY
IMPACTING SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS WHERE WE COULD SEE
HIGHS CLIMB NEAR 40 DEGREES. THIS IS ALSO WHERE WE WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS MONDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE.
THESE BREEZY WINDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 30% IN THESE AREAS MAY LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, SO THAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON. FARTHER EAST WILL FEEL A LITTLE LESS EFFECTS
FROM THE WAA, BUT STILL LOOKING SEASONALLY NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AND WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15-20 MPH.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NBM AND OTHER ENSEMBLES
THAT WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS INCLUDES THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 60S ON TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THESE EXACT NUMBERS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK, BUT IF YOU'RE WISHING FOR THE RETURN OF
SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK, YOU MAY BE IN LUCK. OUR NEXT
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ON PRECIPITATION
TYPES AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. IF IT'S
MAINLY OVERNIGHT, THEN IT MAY LEAN TOWARDS BEING MORE SNOW. BUT
IF IT'S MORE DURING THE DAYTIME, THEN IT COULD LEAN TOWARDS
RAIN. EITHER WAY, IT'S A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM AND MAJOR IMPACTS
LOOK UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING. THE STRATUS IS SITTING AT VFR/MVFR/IFR LEVELS WITH
CEILINGS ALSO VARIABLE THROUGH THE SAME FLIGHT CATEGORIES. FLURRIES
TO PERHAPS VERY LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW IS PRESENT GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY-20. THIS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT FLURRIES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
THE FLURRIES SHOULD BEGIN TO END BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRATUS
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARDS ONCE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH WEAKENING WINDS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...MEYERS
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