552
FXUS63 KFSD 211106
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
506 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO
THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEK.
- MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY COULD PROMOTE SOME
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20%-30%) SHOULD RETURN FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY PROMOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN,
SNOW, AND/OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF THE TWO. HOWEVER, SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TIMING AND OVERALL AMOUNTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
ANOTHER COLD AND QUIET NIGHT CONTINUES AS LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS AND
LINGERING COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) HELP TEMPERATURES DECREASE INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO START THE MORNING. SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE CHILLIER SIDE WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30S. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE ON THE BREEZIER SIDE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH EXPECTED
WHICH COULD MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL A BIT COLDER THAN WHAT THEY
ACTUALLY ARE. FROM HERE, WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY
PRECIPITATION-WISE; THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE (10% OR LESS) FOR
A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SD AS LIFT INCREASES WITH AN
APPROACHING WAVE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT AT BEST.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY PARTS
OF NEW WEEK COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, MORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN WILL RETURN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, SNOW, AND/OR
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF THE TWO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LASTLY, TEMPERATURES
WILL TAKE ON A WARMING TREND BY MONDAY PROMOTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S TO 50S FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
LIGHT FLURRIES HAVE ENDED THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES ARE BEGINNING
TO CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN THE 20S. FOR
REFERENCE, AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY IS IN THE MID 30S. BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DECREASE AFTER 6PM CDT AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO HAVE BUMPED NBM LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN
JUST A TOUCH WITH A BLEND OF BCCONSSHORT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON, A MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS. SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HINTS AT
ISOLATED, VERY LIGHT FLURRIES SATURDAY EVENING. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THESE FLURRIES OCCURRING OR REACHING THE GROUND
DUE TO A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. IF THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE, AND
FLURRIES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND, VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, VERY
WEAK WAA IN THEN 900-800 MB LAYER WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES A
BIT FROM TODAY, INTO THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR,
HOWEVER SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN THEY WOULD BE OTHERWISE. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLDER OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE BREEZY WINDS,
IN THE MINUS TEENS.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH COLD HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S THANKS TO A
STRONG SHOT OF CAA. GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW US TO TAP INTO A 30-40 KT
LLJ BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING THEIR PEAK AROUND LATE-MORNING AT 25-30
MPH. WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALIGNED WELL WITH THE BUFFALO RIDGE,
DOWN SLOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST
GUSTS, UP TO 35 MPH. WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION MONDAY. A STRONG PUSH OF WAA WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. TUESDAY A SECOND
STRONG PUSH OF WAA WILL BOOST HIGHS EVEN WARMER, IN THE 40S AND 50S.
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE JUST CLIPS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN AS A RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES COOL. A SECOND, STRONGER
WAVE PASSES THROUGH RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST, BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. A LARGE SPREAD
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEPS UNCERTAINTY HIGH. IF YOU HAVE MID-WEEK
TRAVEL PLANS, BE SURE TO CHECK THE FORECAST AGAIN AS DETAILS BECOME
CLEARER.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S
WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS TAF PERIOD. BESIDES SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH EXPECTED.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...05
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