133
FXUS63 KFSD 212354
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
554 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES TO LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
NORTH OF I-90. ADDITIONAL FLURRIES TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MN AND NORTHWESTERN IA.
- WIND CHILLS DROP TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE
TEENS TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. MILDER TEMPERATURES
START RETURNING TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND THEN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUESDAY.
- MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY COULD PROMOTE SOME
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE WEDNESDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES
OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON AMOUNTS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND THE SYSTEM'S TRACK
REMAIN HIGH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, HAVE EXPANDED MENTION OF
FLURRIES NORTH OF I-90 THIS EVENING. HAVE SEEN REPORTS OF A
DUSTING OF SNOW UP BY ABERDEEN WITH AN AREA OF STRATUS DROPPING
SOUTH, BUT MOISTURE PROFILES IN OUR AREA AREN'T QUITE AS
SATURATED SO THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN FLURRIES. REFINED
COVERAGE/CHANCES OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WELL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AND NORTHWESTERN IA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
IT'S BEEN A CHILLY DAY OUT THERE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
ONLY TO THE TEENS AND 20S. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES WITH
ANY LOWER CLOUDS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA, AND A FEW
SPITS OF FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STRATUS DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND DRIFTS INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF EAST-
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH
WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE 10S BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. A
QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOW TEENS OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
CLOUD COVER, TO THE UPPER 20S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY
TOMORROW NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST,
AND WE LOOK TO SEE LOWS MONDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS JUST ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO ONLY EXPECTING WIND
CHILLS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
STILL BUNDLE UP MONDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING OUT THE DOOR TO
WORK OR SCHOOL!
MILDER TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
WEST OF JAMES RIVER WHERE WE WILL BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. LOOK FOR HIGHS REACH THE 40S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. HIGHS
STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWEST (25-35%), AND THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RACE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY,
SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS POINT,
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA, WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 30% FOR OUR AREA. THINGS GET A BIT MORE
INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER WAVES DIVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND WILL LOOK TO BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR AREA. TIMING OF THIS WAVE AND THE
TEMPERATURES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ARE THE BIGGEST
QUESTION MARKS THAT RESULTS IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. THE DETERMINISTIC 21.12Z GFS AND EC ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, BRINGING SOME SNOW
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THE GFS JUST HAS A STRONGER WAVE
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO POSSIBLY A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THAN THE EC. MEANWHILE, EACH OF ITS AI
COUNTERPARTS BRING THE TRACK OF SNOW FURTHER SOUTH, CLOSER TO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING TO THE ENSEMBLES, THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK IS APPARENT IN THE PROBABILITIES OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1 INCH, WHICH PAINTS A BROAD
20-40% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING. CERTAINLY WILL BE THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM TO MONITOR, SO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST!
FROM THERE, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER QUICK WARM-UP AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH THE DEGREE OF WARMTH WILL BE IN
QUESTION UNTIL CERTAINTY GROWS ON SNOW POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY BE FAVORED ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MAY SETTLE INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ADDED SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO GROUP THIS EVENING FOR
KHON WITH AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW MOVING
SOUTH. LESS CONFIDENT THIS WILL REACH KFSD, SO HAVE KEPT VFR AND
OMITTED -SN MENTION FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, FLURRIES AND MVFR ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN IA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST
EXTENT OF THE STRATUS AT THIS TIME. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...SG
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