672
FXUS63 KFSD 220440
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES TONIGHT NORTH OF I-90, AND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
- WIND CHILLS DROP TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE
TEENS TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. MILDER TEMPERATURES
START RETURNING TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND THEN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUESDAY.
- MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY COULD PROMOTE SOME
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE WEDNESDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES
OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON AMOUNTS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND THE SYSTEM'S TRACK
REMAIN HIGH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND INTO
TOMORROW. FLURRIES CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AND NORTHWESTERN IA, BUT ALSO INTO
EASTERN SD NORTH OF I-90. WINDS HAVE REMAINED BREEZY WITH GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY AS HIGH AS 30 MPH, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS ARE BELOW ZERO, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA.
DID MAKE ONE SMALL EDIT TO LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING,
BLENDING IN SOME OF THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE. THIS IS A DROP OF A
COUPLE DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS, DROPPING MORE LOCATIONS BELOW
ZERO FOR TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
IT'S BEEN A CHILLY DAY OUT THERE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
ONLY TO THE TEENS AND 20S. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES WITH
ANY LOWER CLOUDS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA, AND A FEW
SPITS OF FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STRATUS DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND DRIFTS INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF EAST-
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH
WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE 10S BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. A
QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOW TEENS OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
CLOUD COVER, TO THE UPPER 20S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY
TOMORROW NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST,
AND WE LOOK TO SEE LOWS MONDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS JUST ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO ONLY EXPECTING WIND
CHILLS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
STILL BUNDLE UP MONDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING OUT THE DOOR TO
WORK OR SCHOOL!
MILDER TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
WEST OF JAMES RIVER WHERE WE WILL BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. LOOK FOR HIGHS REACH THE 40S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. HIGHS
STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWEST (25-35%), AND THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RACE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY,
SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS POINT,
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA, WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 30% FOR OUR AREA. THINGS GET A BIT MORE
INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER WAVES DIVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND WILL LOOK TO BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR AREA. TIMING OF THIS WAVE AND THE
TEMPERATURES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ARE THE BIGGEST
QUESTION MARKS THAT RESULTS IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. THE DETERMINISTIC 21.12Z GFS AND EC ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, BRINGING SOME SNOW
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THE GFS JUST HAS A STRONGER WAVE
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO POSSIBLY A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THAN THE EC. MEANWHILE, EACH OF ITS AI
COUNTERPARTS BRING THE TRACK OF SNOW FURTHER SOUTH, CLOSER TO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING TO THE ENSEMBLES, THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK IS APPARENT IN THE PROBABILITIES OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1 INCH, WHICH PAINTS A BROAD
20-40% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING. CERTAINLY WILL BE THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM TO MONITOR, SO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST!
FROM THERE, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER QUICK WARM-UP AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH THE DEGREE OF WARMTH WILL BE IN
QUESTION UNTIL CERTAINTY GROWS ON SNOW POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY BE FAVORED ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MAY SETTLE INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MN AND NORTHWESTERN IA. DO HAVE SOME PATCHIER
STRATUS TOWARD THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, BUT
THIS LOOKS PATCHY ENOUGH UPSTREAM TO KEEP CEILINGS SCT AT KFSD.
FLURRIES HAVE BEEN FALLING OUT OF THIS STRATUS, BUT HAVE NOT
SEEN ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO THE
DAY SUNDAY, SCATTERING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO VFR
CONDITIONS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS TAPER DOWN QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET SUNDAY, AND BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...SG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page