541
FXUS63 KFSD 222320
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
520 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO -15 ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY WEEK COULD
PROMOTE SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY
WEST OF I-29.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE PROBABILITIES (30%-60%) OF A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS ACCORDING TO
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY BELOW ZERO. WITH SOME LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DIP
TO -5 TO -15 AT TIMES. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL SET UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, STRONGEST NEAR AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. THIS WILL CREATE SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CLAW BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS, CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH WITH HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON. IF MIXING REMAINS MORE LIMITED WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 25 TO 30 MPH, BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER
THE DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED.
A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
BRING INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
INITIALLY THERE COULD BE A BATTLE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, BUT WITH A
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND COLDER
AIR SETTLING IN WITH DECENT FRONTAL FORCING, SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP.
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS WITH 30-60
PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID, WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE FRONTAL BAND AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE BRINGING THE MAX
FORCING CLOSER TO I-90. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WITH 40S AND 50S ON THURSDAY AND 50S AND 60S ON FRIDAY. IF
SNOW ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE WIDESPREAD THIS WILL EAT INTO THESE MILDER
TEMPERATURES.
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT STARTING
TO LOOK LIKE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY VERY SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL SOME
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME PATCHY MVFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES
RIVER; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH IN OCCURRENCE TO KEEP
CEILINGS OUT FOR NOW (LIMITED COVERAGE TO FEW).
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TAPER DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING,
SHIFTING SOUTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SG
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