846
FXUS63 KFSD 232004
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
204 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL RETURN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY BREEZY
CONDITIONS, WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
- A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING OUR NEXT ROUND
OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE LESS THAN 2
INCHES OF SNOW, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN'T BE RULED
DEPENDING ON IF AND WHERE A HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETS UP.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MOST SPOTS SHOULD END UP IN THE 20S
AND 30S FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW 40S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A MILDER NIGHT IS AHEAD, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING TO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES.
THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TOMORROW. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, BUT LIFT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD HELP SET OFF SOME SPRINKLES TO
FLURRIES. THE MAIN THING TO WATCH TOMORROW WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WINDS STAY BREEZY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON, GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH. CLOUD
COVER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30-60% (LOWEST ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY) WILL HELP LIMIT WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT ANY FIRE THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD SPREAD
QUICKLY IN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE EXTENT OF
WARMING MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, AND THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT ROUND
OF ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, AND THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH SNOW WE SEE AND WHERE THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE. AT THIS
POINT, IT'S LOOKING LIKE ANY AREAS THAT SEE SNOW WILL SEE A GENERAL
TRACE TO 2 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FOCUSED OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS MOSTLY
RAIN, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMPERATURES THERE AS
WELL. WITH ALL THAT SAID, LET'S NOW TALK ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY AND
HOW THIS FORECAST MAY CHANGE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE FALLING WITHIN
TWO CAMPS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. ONE CAMP SHOWS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING MAINLY ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA, WHICH IS WHAT THE NBM FAVORS AT THIS TIME. THE
SECOND CAMP IS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, WHICH BRINGS THE AXIS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MAINLY NEAR OR ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. IF THE NORTHERLY TRACK VERIFIES, THE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND SO
MOSTLY RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED THERE, WHILE SNOW WOULD BE THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FARTHER NORTH TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR. IF
THE SOUTHERLY TRACK VERIFIES, THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE SIOUX CITY METRO TO HAVE
SNOW BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE, WHILE FARTHER NORTH, DRY
AIR WOULD LIKELY WIN THE DAY. REGARDLESS, SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MOST OF US AS THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM ; HOWEVER, IF A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW DOES SET UP OVER
THE AREA, A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A QUICK 2-4." IN TERMS OF
TIMING, PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ENTER AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS REBOUND BACK ABOVE AVERAGE ON THURSDAY; ALTHOUGH HOW WARM WE
GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT SNOWPACK WE END UP WITH. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S, THOUGH SOME 60S ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
LIKE THURSDAY, IF SNOW PACK IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND, AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE HIGHS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY OF US,
WITH MORNING LOWS SUNDAY LOOKING THE COLDEST AT THIS TIME, WITH
WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT WE'LL SEE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND THIS COULD BRING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. JUST ANOTHER SYSTEM OUT IN
THE LONG-RANGE TO WATCH FOR AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING A BROAD 20-50%
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT
PRECIPITATION-WISE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY, GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT
TONIGHT, BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN HEADING INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS
IS BECAUSE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY TURN
WINDS TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30-35 KTS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. LASTLY, LLWS CONCERNS WILL IMPACT KFSD AND
KSUX LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...SAMET
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