337
FXUS63 KFSD 240920
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
320 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROMOTE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY WEST OF I-29.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF DUSTING TO 1 INCH EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IA.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
OVERALL AMOUNTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
A MILDER DAY AHEAD! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE WARM
FRONT GRADUALLY PROGRESSES ACROSS SODAK. EXPECT A RETURN TO MILDER
CONDITIONS AS THE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR HELPS TEMPERATURES PEAK IN
THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S FOR THE DAY. A TIGHTENING SPG WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF UP TO 40 MPH.
SHIFTING GEARS HERE, THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
ELEVATED (40%-60%); ANY FEASIBLE THREAT WOULD BE MOSTLY WIND-DRIVEN.
NONETHELESS, IF ANY FIRE MANAGE TO GET GOING THE CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE RAPID FIRE SPREAD. AS A RESULT MAKE SURE TO LIMIT ANY
ACTIVITIES THAT COULD START A FIRE.
LOOKING INTO WEDNESDAY, THE MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND
THE UPCOMING SNOW CHANCES. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, 00Z
TO 06Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT INTO TWO
DISTINCT CAMPS OF SOLUTIONS. THE NORTHERN TRACK FOLLOWS THE NAM AND
GFS ALONG A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO SPENCER, IA LINE WHILE THE
SOUTHERN TRACK FOLLOWS THE CANADIAN, RAP, AND FV3 THROUGH
CHAMBERLAIN AND THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. BOTH TRACKS SUPPORT
LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE DUSTING TO 1 INCH RANGE WITH POCKETS
OF 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SET UP IS
WHERE THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY LIES. WHILE WE SHOULD GET SOME CLARITY
WITH THE COMING RUNS OF GUIDANCE, EXPECT A SHARP CUT OFF IN AMOUNTS
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF SNOW. LASTLY, EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO BE MINIMAL WITH SLOWER COMMUTE TIMES AND TEMPORARY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH FALLING SNOW BEING THE MAIN FOCUSES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MOST SPOTS SHOULD END UP IN THE 20S
AND 30S FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW 40S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A MILDER NIGHT IS AHEAD, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING TO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES.
THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TOMORROW. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, BUT LIFT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD HELP SET OFF SOME SPRINKLES TO
FLURRIES. THE MAIN THING TO WATCH TOMORROW WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WINDS STAY BREEZY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON, GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH. CLOUD
COVER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30-60% (LOWEST ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY) WILL HELP LIMIT WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT ANY FIRE THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD SPREAD
QUICKLY IN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE EXTENT OF
WARMING MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, AND THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT ROUND
OF ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, AND THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH SNOW WE SEE AND WHERE THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE. AT THIS
POINT, IT'S LOOKING LIKE ANY AREAS THAT SEE SNOW WILL SEE A GENERAL
TRACE TO 2 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FOCUSED OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS MOSTLY
RAIN, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMPERATURES THERE AS
WELL. WITH ALL THAT SAID, LET'S NOW TALK ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY AND
HOW THIS FORECAST MAY CHANGE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE FALLING WITHIN
TWO CAMPS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. ONE CAMP SHOWS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING MAINLY ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA, WHICH IS WHAT THE NBM FAVORS AT THIS TIME. THE
SECOND CAMP IS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, WHICH BRINGS THE AXIS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MAINLY NEAR OR ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. IF THE NORTHERLY TRACK VERIFIES, THE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND SO
MOSTLY RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED THERE, WHILE SNOW WOULD BE THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FARTHER NORTH TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR. IF
THE SOUTHERLY TRACK VERIFIES, THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE SIOUX CITY METRO TO HAVE
SNOW BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE, WHILE FARTHER NORTH, DRY
AIR WOULD LIKELY WIN THE DAY. REGARDLESS, SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MOST OF US AS THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM ; HOWEVER, IF A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW DOES SET UP OVER
THE AREA, A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A QUICK 2-4." IN TERMS OF
TIMING, PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ENTER AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS REBOUND BACK ABOVE AVERAGE ON THURSDAY; ALTHOUGH HOW WARM WE
GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT SNOWPACK WE END UP WITH. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S, THOUGH SOME 60S ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
LIKE THURSDAY, IF SNOW PACK IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND, AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE HIGHS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY OF US,
WITH MORNING LOWS SUNDAY LOOKING THE COLDEST AT THIS TIME, WITH
WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT WE'LL SEE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND THIS COULD BRING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. JUST ANOTHER SYSTEM OUT IN
THE LONG-RANGE TO WATCH FOR AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING A BROAD 20-50%
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION. WINDS HAVE REMAINED A BIT BREEZY SO FAR THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT
AROUND 20 KNOTS. LLJ AND WIND SHIFTS WILL ALLOW FOR LLWS ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE STILL SHOW
THAT SPEED SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT TIMES, BUT MAINTAINED MENTION
DUE TO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. DIRECTION WILL SHIFT THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY, TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...SG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page