659
FXUS63 KFSD 250448
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1048 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, A HEAVIER BAND OF UP
TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN TO
CANTON TO STORM LAKE.
- WARM AND DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 845 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
24.18Z AND LATER MODELS, INCLUDING THE SREF GUIDANCE, HAVE
STAYED ROUGHLY THE SAME OR TRENDED UPWARD SLIGHTLY IN QPF, SO
INCREASED POPS AND QPF SLIGHTLY. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST BAND MAY SET UP (MOST FURTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENT FORECAST). ADDITIONALLY, STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING
HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN SATURATES AND ANY BRIEF PERIODS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE DGZ AFTER SATURATION, BUT OVERALL TIMING OF
SNOW CHANCES/POPS STILL FITS THE MODEL TRENDS. LOWERED HIGHS A
TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL, WITH LIKELY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
ALL THESE CHANGES DID NOT LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
ACCUMULATIONS. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR LESS, WITH
AREAS IN THE HEAVIER BAND (NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN TO CANTON TO
STORM LAKE) MAY SEE UP TO 2 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
SATURATION IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A SHROUD OF
CLOUDS TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF OUR AFTERNOON
WARMING DESPITE A STRONG PUSH OF WAA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING. STILL, WE'LL BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 40S AND
LOW 50S, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL BEGINNING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH FROM NORTHWESTERN MONTANA
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IT DOES SO SOME VIRGA TO VERY
LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER BENEATH THE CLOUDS, AND SO CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY SPRINKLES WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND IS LOW. WINDS ARE
NORTHWESTERLY AND BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH, WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
REGION. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE WARM ENOUGH, AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS, THE GUSTY WINDS WILL AID IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD
THROUGH VERY DRY FUELS. PLEASE USE CAUTION TODAY TO AVOID BEING
THE SPARK. REPORT ANY FIRES TO LOCAL AUTHORITIES IMMEDIATELY.
WEDNESDAY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA AS A
WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. FORCING LOOKS TO BE MODERATELY
STRONG AND DEEP. IN ADDITION, WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN
THE DGZ, HELPING TO BOOST PRECIPITATION FORMATION. HOWEVER, A
SIGNIFICANT SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER INDICATED IN SOUNDINGS IS VERY SLOW
TO SATURATE. WHEN THE COLUMN DOES EVENTUALLY SATURATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT TYPE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE AT ONSET. WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH MAY
RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AT THE BEGINNING, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS THE
COLUMN WET BULBS DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING. OVERALL SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT, A
DUSTING UP TO AROUND AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A BAND OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW WILL FORM FROM
ROUGHLY CHAMBERLAIN, TO PARKER, TO STORM LAKE. ALONG THIS BAND,
HAVE BOOSTED QPF SLIGHTLY WITH A BLEND OF NBM AND CONSSHORT
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS. THIS BETTER CAPTURES THE
AREA WHERE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FORM. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 0.5" SNOWFALL PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE, RESULTING IN
SNOW TOTALS WITHIN THE BAND REACHING 1.5 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES.
TIMING OF HEAVIER SNOW IS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3 AND 8 PM CDT. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT, SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
IS A LOW CONCERN. HOWEVER, DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOWFALL,
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK QUIET WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE VERY WARM, IN THE MID 50S TO 60S!
FRIDAY AFTERNOON A LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL DRAG A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE REGION, TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. A STRONG PUSH OF CAA BEHIND THE AXIS WILL BRING OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO 30S, SUNDAY IN THE 20S. IN
ADDITION, A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT GIVE WAY TO
LOWER END VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS AS SNOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
HAVE REFINED TIMING AND SOME OF THE CATEGORY CHANGES, DROPPING
MOST OF THE AREA TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH STRATUS. EXPECT BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW AND LOWER STRATUS; ADDED IN SOME
MENTION WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW. KFSD AND KSUX MAY BE ON THE
EDGES OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND, SO TIMING WITH ANY PREVAILING
GROUPS IS A BIT TRICKY STILL. SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LIGHT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING
TO SOUTHERLY TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST
WINDS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...SG
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