778
FXUS63 KFSD 250830
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
230 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN BY MID-MORNING WITH AN INCH
OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA COULD LEAD TO POCKETS
OF UP TO 2 INCHES.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AHEAD! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, WE'RE
STARTING TO SEE AREAS OF STRATUS BUILD INTO NORTHCENTRAL SD AND
SUBSEQUENTLY HURON THIS MORNING. WITH THE GROWING POTENTIAL FOR THE
LOWER CLOUD DECK TO BUILD SOUTH, DECIDED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA TO ACCOUNTS FOR THIS. FROM HERE, THE MAIN FOCUS
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE SNOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH
AN AREA OF DEVELOPING SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREAS ALONG
A CHAMBERLAIN TO PARKER TO STORM LAKE, IA LINE FROM MID-MORNING (9AM
TO 10 AM) THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING (6PM TO 8PM). ACCUMULATIVE
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MOST AREAS WITH A
DUSTING TO 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS UNDERNEATH MULTIPLE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW BANDS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 0.50 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WHILE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS STILL STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE INITIAL BAND (LINE MENTIONED ABOVE VS MO RIVER VALLEY),
DID NOTICE THAT A COUPLE OF THE CAMS WERE STARTING TO HINT AT A SMALL
SECONDARY BAND DEVELOPING ALONG A DE SMET TO PIPESTONE, MN TO
WORTHINGTON, MN LINE.
WITH THIS IN MIND, USED A BLEND OF THE RAP13, CONSSHORT, AND
PREVIOUS TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND HIGHWAY-14
CORRIDORS. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID, STILL THINK THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE (1
INCH OR LESS) WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW POCKETS OF UP TO 2
INCHES. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THIS SNOW SHOULD FALL STRAIGHT TO THE
GROUND WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE. WHILE IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE KEPT TO A MINIMAL, TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY
WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE LUNCH RUSH AND EVENING COMMUTES SO MAKE SURE
TO DRIVE TO THE CONDITIONS! LASTLY, DECIDED TO LOWER HIGHS A TOUCH
USING THE BCCONSHORT GIVEN HOW SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING OUR PEAK
HEATING HOURS. AS A RESULT, MOST AREAS WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE 30S TO
40S FOR THE DAY WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
SATURATION IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A SHROUD OF
CLOUDS TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF OUR AFTERNOON
WARMING DESPITE A STRONG PUSH OF WAA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING. STILL, WE'LL BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 40S AND
LOW 50S, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL BEGINNING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH FROM NORTHWESTERN MONTANA
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IT DOES SO SOME VIRGA TO VERY
LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER BENEATH THE CLOUDS, AND SO CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY SPRINKLES WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND IS LOW. WINDS ARE
NORTHWESTERLY AND BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH, WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
REGION. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE WARM ENOUGH, AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS, THE GUSTY WINDS WILL AID IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD
THROUGH VERY DRY FUELS. PLEASE USE CAUTION TODAY TO AVOID BEING
THE SPARK. REPORT ANY FIRES TO LOCAL AUTHORITIES IMMEDIATELY.
WEDNESDAY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA AS A
WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. FORCING LOOKS TO BE MODERATELY
STRONG AND DEEP. IN ADDITION, WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN
THE DGZ, HELPING TO BOOST PRECIPITATION FORMATION. HOWEVER, A
SIGNIFICANT SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER INDICATED IN SOUNDINGS IS VERY SLOW
TO SATURATE. WHEN THE COLUMN DOES EVENTUALLY SATURATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT TYPE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE AT ONSET. WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH MAY
RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AT THE BEGINNING, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS THE
COLUMN WET BULBS DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING. OVERALL SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT, A
DUSTING UP TO AROUND AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A BAND OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW WILL FORM FROM
ROUGHLY CHAMBERLAIN, TO PARKER, TO STORM LAKE. ALONG THIS BAND,
HAVE BOOSTED QPF SLIGHTLY WITH A BLEND OF NBM AND CONSSHORT
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS. THIS BETTER CAPTURES THE
AREA WHERE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FORM. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 0.5" SNOWFALL PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE, RESULTING IN
SNOW TOTALS WITHIN THE BAND REACHING 1.5 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES.
TIMING OF HEAVIER SNOW IS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3 AND 8 PM CDT. WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT, SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
IS A LOW CONCERN. HOWEVER, DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOWFALL,
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK QUIET WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE VERY WARM, IN THE MID 50S TO 60S!
FRIDAY AFTERNOON A LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL DRAG A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE REGION, TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. A STRONG PUSH OF CAA BEHIND THE AXIS WILL BRING OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO 30S, SUNDAY IN THE 20S. IN
ADDITION, A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT GIVE WAY TO
LOWER END VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS AS SNOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
HAVE REFINED TIMING AND SOME OF THE CATEGORY CHANGES, DROPPING
MOST OF THE AREA TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH STRATUS. EXPECT BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW AND LOWER STRATUS; ADDED IN SOME
MENTION WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW. KFSD AND KSUX MAY BE ON THE
EDGES OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND, SO TIMING WITH ANY PREVAILING
GROUPS IS A BIT TRICKY STILL. SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LIGHT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING
TO SOUTHERLY TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST
WINDS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...SG
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