032
FXUS63 KFSD 111740
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1240 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER (LOCALLY EXTREME) IS EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY AS STRONG WINDS AND LOWERING HUMIDITY VALUES
RETURN TO THE AREA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO SPIRIT LAKE, IA
LINE FROM NOON THROUGH 9PM CDT.
- WINDS INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTS 45 TO 55 COULD
BE COMMON OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA FROM 9PM THURSDAY THROUGH 7AM FRIDAY.
- ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MAY IMPACT TRAVEL, AND WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
PRIMARY FOCUS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ADJUSTING COVERAGE
AND TIMING OF SNOW, WHICH WAS MAINLY LOCATED ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF
A YANKTON TO WINDOM LINE AS OF 5 AM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL WIND-RELATED CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT ARE
COVERED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE INCLUDED BELOW.
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AS A WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT
IN QPF, WITH VALUES INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE QPF
FOR THIS AREA WITH A BLEND OF THE NBM AND CONSSHORT. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG A ROUGH LINE FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, FAR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, AND FAR NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. HERE AN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE A BAND OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ALONG WITH A WEAK PUSH OF WAA MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
A VERY LIGHT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHETHER
IT'S RAIN OR SNOW WILL DEPEND ON THE TEMPERATURES. NORTH OF I-90
IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW, WITH AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF
A DUSTING TO A TENTH OR TWO. TO THE SOUTH IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
RAIN WITH JUST A HUNDREDTH OR TWO POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND
WILL NOT SURVIVE LONG AS HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 40S. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, GUSTING 25- 30 MPH. WINDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 20S.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WINDS INCREASE, GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH. THIS
COUPLED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 11AM UNTIL 9PM CST. FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
REACHES. HOWEVER, WITH THE VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WOULD MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES
JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION. NOT ONLY WILL THIS CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN THE SPG, BUT THE TEMPERATURE IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL
RAPIDLY FALL 10-15+ DEGREES C BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
WORK TO BOLSTER WINDS AT THE SURFACE BEGINNING IN THE EVENING AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. NBM LOADED FAR TOO LOW, SO AFTER DISCUSSION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH A BLEND OF THE NBM/NBM90.
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
50+ MPH POSSIBLE. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM
10PM THURSDAY UNTIL 7AM FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A COOLER DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE
AREA, LOWER CLOUDS AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE LED TO QUITE
THE TEMPERATURES GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW TO MID
30S SETTING UP ALONG A TYNDALL TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM, MN LINE AND
MID 40S TO LOW 50S ALONG THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN IA. WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE HEADING
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON, WE'LL LIKELY SEE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE, THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT NORTHWESTWARDS AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA
THIS EVENING BRINGING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THINGS SHOULD
START AS LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY, CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF TRANSITION TO
A RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN SD AND
NORTHWESTERN IA AS IT ENCOUNTERS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT. NONETHELESS, DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD FORCE
THINGS BACK LIGHT SNOW AS WE CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND, ACCUMULATIVE AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (POCKETS OF 2+
INCHES) ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHWESTERN MN. WILL BE LESS THAN INCH FOR
MOST AREAS. LASTLY, SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: LOOKING INTO THE MIDWEEK, ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARDS EVENTUALLY LEAVING OUR
AREA BY MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. FROM HERE, MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS
RETURN AS CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASES. DEPENDING ON OUR NEW SNOW
PACK, TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT COOLER NORTH OF I-90 ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. AS A RESULT, HIGHS COULD SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TREND IN THE UPPER 30S TO TO UPPER 40S WITH THE MILDEST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE COULD LEAD TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN.
WHILE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, SOME SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR COULD THWART MUCH OF IT FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. BY THURSDAY, A DECENTLY STRONG CLIPPER WAVE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. WHILE MOST OF
THE BETTER FORCING WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
BE CLIPPED BY THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM LEADING TO POCKETS OF
RAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ACCUMULATIVE AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER END (<0.10") FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, CAN'T
RULE OUT UP TO 0.20 OF AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MN.
LASTLY, THE RETURN OF MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY (MORE IN FIRE
WEATHER SECTION).
FRIDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL HELP USHER IN MULTIPLE SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE
SOME OF THE 10.12Z GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES, ITS STILL A BIT EARLY TO PIN-POINT A
SPECIFIC AREA OF FOCUS AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS, WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AROUND ST PATRICK'S DAY WEEKEND; MAKE SURE TO MONITOR
YOUR LOCAL FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO ALTER ANY TRAVEL PLANS.
OTHERWISE, WE'LL GET ANOTHER TASTE OF WINTER TEMPERATURE-WISE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS DECREASING INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIODS. TAKING A LOOK AT
SATELLITE IMAGERY, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THURSDAY TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
MORE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AS
STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RETURN. TO START,
THE COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL LEAD TO MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S
TO MID 60S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RH VALUES 25-35 PERCENT RANGE WITH LOWEST VALUES
POTENTIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. BETWEEN THIS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH WINDS, HIGH TO VERY HIGH (AND LOCALLY EXTREME)
FIRE DANGER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AS A RESULT, OUR
FIRE WEATHER WATCH LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT FIRST GLACE.
WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN TALKS WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ABOUT A
POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO RED FLAG WARNING, DECIDED TO KEEP OUR WATCH IN
PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO A FEW FACTORS: 1. NORTHWESTERN IA HAS A LIGHT
SNOW PACK OF 1-2 INCHES WHICH COULD DAMPEN FUELS AFFECTING THE
IGNITION AND SPREAD OF POTENTIAL FIRES. 2. BUILDING CLOUD COVER
COULD HAMPER HOW FAST WE WARM AND AFFECT OVERALL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE DAY. 3. SOME HIGH-PRESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS NOW TIMING IN THE
RAIN FASTER (EARLY AFTERNOON) AS OPPOSED TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WHICH COULD AFFECT HOW MANY HOURS WE TRULY MEET CRITERIA.
WITHOUT KNOWING HOW ALL THESE FACTORS WILL PLAY OUT, DECIDED
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WOULD BE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR SDZ038-050-052>055-057>071.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR SDZ038>040-050-052>071.
MN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ013-014.
UPDATE...JH/AJP
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
FIRE WEATHER...05
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