956
FXUS63 KFSD 112012
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
312 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONGER WINDS WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY WITH GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. POCKETS OF HIGHER (60+ MPH) ARE ALSO
EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN MN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SD
NORTH FROM 7PM THURSDAY TO 7AM FRIDAY.
- HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER (LOCALLY EXTREME) IS EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY AS STRONG WINDS AND LOWERING HUMIDITY VALUES
RETURN TO THE AREA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO SPIRIT LAKE, IA
LINE FROM NOON THROUGH 9PM CDT.
- ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MAY IMPACT TRAVEL, AND WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: ANOTHER COOL DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS
THE AREA, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
THIS HAS SUCCEEDED IN MELTING MOST OF THE SNOW, STILL HAVE A LIGHT
SNOW PACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN SD AND NORTHWESTERN
IA. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH
THE MILDEST CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SD. SHIFTING GEARS TO
PRECIPITATION, WE'RE STARTING TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES TO LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOP MOSTLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR MAINLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THIS WON'T
REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS. LASTLY, ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.
THURSDAY: LOOKING INTO THURSDAY, THINGS WILL GET PRETTY INTERESTING
ALOFT AS A DECENTLY STRONG CLIPPER WAVE CROSSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS BRINGING STRONG WINDS, LIGHT RAIN,
AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AT TIMES. STARTING WITH THE PRECIPITATION,
A STRONG SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA ON THE
NOSE OF JET STREAK. THIS COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90 BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
OF 0.10" OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IA AS WELL. NEXT, A WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA)
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE DAY WITH THE
WARMEST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS COMBINED
WITH LOWER RH VALUES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON (MORE DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION).
FINALLY, WE'LL SHIFT OVER TO THE MAIN CONCERN WHICH ARE THE STRONGER
WINDS. A TIGHTENING SPG ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE MIXY ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LLJ (85-95 MPH AT 700 MB), WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45-55 MPH WITH POCKETS
OF 60+ MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND,
DECIDED TO UPGRADE PART OF OUR HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING MAINLY NORTH OF A TYNDALL TO CANTON TO SPIRIT LAKE, IA LINE.
ANYTHING SOUTH OF THE LINE WAS KEPT IN A HIGH WIND WATCH. THE
CURRENT THINKING WAS TO UPGRADE THE PARTS OF THE WATCH THAT WE HAVE
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. WHILE WE CAN'T RULE
OUT ADDITIONAL UPGRADES TO THE WATCH, DECIDED THIS WOULD BE A GOOD
STARTING POINT TO EMPHASIS THE STRONGER WINDS.
FRIDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL HELP USHER IN MULTIPLE SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE
SOME OF THE 11.12Z GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS
AMOUNTS. NONETHELESS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION MAKE SURE TO MONITOR YOUR LOCAL FORECAST
HEADING INTO ST PATRICK DAY WEEKEND AND BE PREPARED TO ALTER ANY
TRAVEL PLANS. OTHERWISE, WE'LL GET ANOTHER TASTE OF WINTER
TEMPERATURE-WISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS DECREASING INTO THE 20S
TO LOW 30S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIODS. TAKING A LOOK AT
SATELLITE IMAGERY, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THURSDAY TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
MORE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AS
STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RETURN. TO START,
THE COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL LEAD TO MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S
TO MID 60S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RH VALUES 25-35 PERCENT RANGE WITH LOWEST VALUES
POTENTIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. BETWEEN THIS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH WINDS, HIGH TO VERY HIGH (AND LOCALLY EXTREME)
FIRE DANGER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AS A RESULT, OUR
FIRE WEATHER WATCH LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT FIRST GLACE.
WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN TALKS WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ABOUT A
POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO RED FLAG WARNING, DECIDED TO KEEP OUR WATCH IN
PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO A FEW FACTORS: 1. PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
SD AND NORTHWESTERN IA HAVE A LIGHT SNOW PACK WHICH COULD DAMPEN
FUELS AFFECTING THE IGNITION AND SPREAD OF POTENTIAL FIRES. 2.
BUILDING CLOUD COVER COULD HAMPER HOW FAST WE WARM AND AFFECT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. 3. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
IS NOW TIMING IN THE RAIN FASTER (EARLY AFTERNOON) AS OPPOSED TO
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHICH COULD AFFECT HOW MANY HOURS WE
TRULY MEET CRITERIA. WITHOUT KNOWING HOW ALL THESE FACTORS WILL PLAY
OUT, DECIDED THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WOULD BE A WAIT AND SEE
APPROACH. THUS THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR SDZ038-050-052>055-057>071.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR SDZ066>071.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
SDZ038>040-050-052>065.
MN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
FIRE WEATHER...05
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