388
FXUS63 KFSD 120424
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1124 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS 55 TO 75 MPH EXPECTED, THE HIGHEST
GUSTS MOST LIKELY NORTH OF I-90. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WINDY AND DRY WITH GENERALLY FULLY CURED FUELS
AND DRY CONDITIONS.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW AND WIND
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO PLANS ON THOSE
DAYS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE STRONGER WINDS COULD
START TO MIX DOWN BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH A STRONG CORE OF WINDS
NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. THE LOCATIONS MOST AT RISK WILL BE NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A HURON TO SPENCER IA LINE. AFTERNOON RH LEVELS DROP TO
25 TO 35 PERCENT WITH EXPECTED WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH AT
TIMES, LIKELY AVERAGING ABOUT 25-35 MPH. THE ONLY QUESTION MARK MAY
BE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD LIMIT HEATING A BIT, BUT
STRONG MIXING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE NORTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DEEPER MIXING.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO MN, STRONG CAA
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 75 MPH
LIKELY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT GUSTS WILL NOT ONLY
REACH 60 MPH, BUT COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 75 MPH GIVEN VERY
HIGH WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IN THE RAP AND HRRR.
HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MAJOR MODELS ARE SUGGESTING STRONG WINDS
AND A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH THE EC
ENS, CANADIAN ENS AND GEFS INDICATING A 40-70% CHANCE FOR A HALF AN
INCH OF LIQUID WITH A 10-20% CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID
CONTENT. THAT WOULD LIKELY EQUATE TO A BAND OF 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW.
SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE BAND COULD BE FAIRLY
TIGHT, SO ANY MOVEMENT NORTH OR SOUTH COULD EQUATE TO SOME LARGE
LOCAL DIFFERENCES. THE MAIN MESSAGE HERE IS THAT IF TRAVELING, THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE HAZARDOUS TO POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD BE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY STRONG WINDS, POSSIBLY AT OR
ABOVE 50 MPH, ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: ANOTHER COOL DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS
THE AREA, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
THIS HAS SUCCEEDED IN MELTING MOST OF THE SNOW, STILL HAVE A LIGHT
SNOW PACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN SD AND NORTHWESTERN
IA. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH
THE MILDEST CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SD. SHIFTING GEARS TO
PRECIPITATION, WE'RE STARTING TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES TO LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOP MOSTLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR MAINLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THIS WON'T
REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS. LASTLY, ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.
THURSDAY: LOOKING INTO THURSDAY, THINGS WILL GET PRETTY INTERESTING
ALOFT AS A DECENTLY STRONG CLIPPER WAVE CROSSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS BRINGING STRONG WINDS, LIGHT RAIN,
AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AT TIMES. STARTING WITH THE PRECIPITATION,
A STRONG SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA ON THE
NOSE OF JET STREAK. THIS COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90 BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
OF 0.10" OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IA AS WELL. NEXT, A WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA)
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE DAY WITH THE
WARMEST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS COMBINED
WITH LOWER RH VALUES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON (MORE DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION).
FINALLY, WE'LL SHIFT OVER TO THE MAIN CONCERN WHICH ARE THE STRONGER
WINDS. A TIGHTENING SPG ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE MIXY ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LLJ (85-95 MPH AT 700 MB), WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45-55 MPH WITH POCKETS
OF 60+ MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND,
DECIDED TO UPGRADE PART OF OUR HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING MAINLY NORTH OF A TYNDALL TO CANTON TO SPIRIT LAKE, IA LINE.
ANYTHING SOUTH OF THE LINE WAS KEPT IN A HIGH WIND WATCH. THE
CURRENT THINKING WAS TO UPGRADE THE PARTS OF THE WATCH THAT WE HAVE
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. WHILE WE CAN'T RULE
OUT ADDITIONAL UPGRADES TO THE WATCH, DECIDED THIS WOULD BE A GOOD
STARTING POINT TO EMPHASIS THE STRONGER WINDS.
FRIDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL HELP USHER IN MULTIPLE SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE
SOME OF THE 11.12Z GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS
AMOUNTS. NONETHELESS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION MAKE SURE TO MONITOR YOUR LOCAL FORECAST
HEADING INTO ST PATRICK DAY WEEKEND AND BE PREPARED TO ALTER ANY
TRAVEL PLANS. OTHERWISE, WE'LL GET ANOTHER TASTE OF WINTER
TEMPERATURE-WISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS DECREASING INTO THE 20S
TO LOW 30S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
ONCE THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE IN NORTHWEST IA AND
NORTHEAST NE BY ABOUT 1Z, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CONCERNS TURN TOWARDS WINDS WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY MORNING TURNING TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN CENTRAL SD AND IN THE EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 65 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WINDS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-90 IN THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THURSDAY MID-MORNING AND TURN A
BIT MORE WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING
TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A HURON TO
SPENCER IA LINE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THIS LINE.
NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS LINE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
HIGHER ALONG WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
IN THIS AREA.
WHILE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY EVENING, A
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
55 TO 75 MPH LIKELY. BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED THURSDAY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ038-050-
052>055-057>071.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
SDZ066>071.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
SDZ038>040-050-052>065.
MN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
NEZ013-014.
UPDATE...08
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...08
FIRE WEATHER...08
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