470
FXUS63 KFSD 140557
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1257 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-90. ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER A
NARROW BAND FROM HURON, TO MADISON, TO LUVERNE MN MAY SEE UP
TO 2 INCHES.
- A LARGE AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT, CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN PLACE FROM 7 PM SATURDAY UNTIL 7 AM
MONDAY. PLEASE KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
LIGHT WAA SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STOUT DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER THAT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO SATURATE BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE.
WHILE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES TO FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE YET THIS
AFTERNOON, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BEGIN
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY INCREASES IN AREAL
COVERAGE MOSTLY ALONG I-90 AND NORTH, GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
BAND TO SET UP AS A 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND TAKES SHAPE. THIS BAND
IS MOST LIKELY TO FORM ALONG A ROUGH LINE FROM HURON, TO MADISON, TO
LUVERNE MN. WITHIN THIS BAND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED, WITH AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90 SEEING ONLY A DUSTING TO A TENTH OR TWO. SNOW TAPERS OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE MOVES EAST AND DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, WITH THE SURFACE LOW EJECTING OUT OF WYOMING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST AN AREA OF STRONG WAA
WILL PUSH OUR HIGHS INTO THE 30 TO 40S NORTH OF I-90, AND THE 40S TO
50S TO THE SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEAST POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES AND WORKS TO AMPLIFY DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
THE RESULTING BAND OF INTENSIFYING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700 MB LAYER
WILL TRIGGER PRECIPITATION TO FORM ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX,
BUT CHANGE TO RAIN AS IT SINKS SOUTH INTO WARMER TEMPERATURES. RAIN
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX THEN TO ALL SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS TO THE SOUTHEAST SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO INTENSIFY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY. SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. TOTAL SNOWFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AS MENTIONED IN A
PRIOR UPDATE, THE TRACK OF THE STORM HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS, BUT HAS HELD STEADY WITH THE
12Z RUN TODAY. IF THE NORTHWARD SHIFT CONTINUES SNOW TOTALS
WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE MORE. HOWEVER, IF THE MODEL TRENDS OF
THE PAST FEW YEARS HOLDS, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHIFT SOUTHWARD
IN TRACK AT 24-36 HOURS OUT. WHILE I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS FOR
THE CURRENT MODEL RUN, I KEPT THEM MINIMAL.
THERE ARE SEVERAL THREATS WE NEED TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FIRST, PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA MAY SEE A LIGHT GLAZE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
ICE ACCUMULATION BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.
SECOND, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG CAA IN
THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY INCREASING, STRONG WIND
GUSTS SUNDAY. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS, HAVE BOOSTED WINDS
WITH A 66% NBM AND 33% NBM90 BLEND. GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITY MAY DECREASE TO LESS THAN 1/4
OF A MILE AT TIMES, AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE
DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD TO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. CONSIDERING THE RISKS FOR ICE AND SNOW,
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY UNTIL 7 AM
MONDAY. DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK HAVE FOREGONE A
BLIZZARD WARNING AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER AN UPGRADE WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND, PLEASE ENSURE
YOU HAVE AN ALTERNATIVE IN MIND AND THAT YOUR VEHICLE IS
PREPARED FOR WINTER TRAVEL.
THIRD, WIND CHILLS WILL BE VERY COLD MONDAY MORNING, FALLING TO
MINUS 20 TO MINUS 25. WIND CHILLS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY BUT
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SUB-ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY BUT COLD, WITH HIGHS AROUND 10-20 DEGREES F.
MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO. CHANCES FOR SNOW RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, IN THE 30S TO 40S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY WITH A NICE WARMING TREND INTO THE 40S AND
50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND 50S TO 60S FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY K9V9 TO KSLB, THOUGH
NOT ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
THIS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND (MAINLY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA), MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR VISIBILITIES ARE BEING SEEN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THIS BAND GRADUALLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD, MAINLY IMPACTING KFSD TO KHON. THIS BAND WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE AREA TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY, BUT
THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, MARKING THE
RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KHON.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, WITH
WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. BY THE AFTERNOON, WINDS
COULD BE GUSTING UPWARDS TO 25-28 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SDZ062-066>071.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR SDZ040-056.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR SDZ038-039-052>055.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR SDZ050-057>061-063>065.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ098.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...SAMET
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