140
FXUS63 KFSD 141754
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1254 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF I-90 AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOWFALL RATES GREATER THAN AN INCH
PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS.
- FOR THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90, LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH IN THESE AREAS, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN IN
LIGHT SNOW. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS, BUT UPGRADES IN THE NEAR FUTURE MAY BE NECESSARY AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST INCREASES.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STRETCHES FROM ROUGHLY WESSINGTON
SPRINGS, SD TO SIOUX FALLS, SD TO SPENCER, IA AND WILL BE SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK TODAY. THE SNOW HAS BEEN FIGHTING
WITH SOME DRY AIR ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, BUT ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN INCH NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90, BUT
A FEW SPOTS TOWARDS HIGHWAY 14 IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA COULD SEE UP
TO AN INCH AND A HALF. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL CLEAR THE AREA TO OUR
NORTH BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. THIS
MAY MELT OFF MOST OF THE SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGHER MARCH
SUN ANGLE, BUT OUR NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR
RIGHT AFTER THIS MELTING.
EVEN THOUGH SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE TRENDED DOWN WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTH,
STRONG WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CAUSE MAJOR IMPACTS NO MATTER HOW
MUCH SNOW YOUR LOCATION ENDS UP RECEIVING. WITH THAT SAID, THE
HIGHEST TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED NORTH OF I-90 AND ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 14 AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE SNOWFALL
TOTALS COULD PUSH THE DOUBLE DIGITS. FOR THIS REASON, ALONG
WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH HERE, A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE LOCATIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED AS WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS, SO STAY HOME IF YOU CAN,
BUT IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE MUCH LOWER, SO HELD OFF ON ANY UPGRADES FOR THE
WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH HEADING INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WOULD BE LIKELY EVEN WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS, BUT WILL GIVE IT A LITTLE MORE TIME BEFORE ANY UPGRADES
IN CASE WINDS TREND DOWN FOR ANY REASON. ALSO, THESE POTENTIAL
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL OVER 24 HOURS OUT, LEAVING A
LITTLE MORE WIGGLE ROOM TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE BEFORE
ANY UPGRADE. DID ADJUST THE TIMING SLIGHTLY LATER FOR THE START
OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR WHEN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
ONE LAST NOTE ON THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, SOME AREAS
MAY START AS RAIN THIS EVENING, AND BEFORE THIS TURNS TO SNOW,
SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET MAY MIX IN. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
BRIEF, BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND
NORTHWEST IOWA. ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE FREEZING LINE SETS UP AND HOW MUCH SLEET CAN MIX IN, BUT BE
SURE TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST TO REMAIN
INFORMED ON THIS POTENTIAL. WINDS LOOK TO START SLOWLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, BUT WIND CHILLS LOOK TO
DROP TO THE NEGATIVE 10S TO NEGATIVE 20S MONDAY MORNING, SO BE
SURE TO BUNDLE UP. CONSIDERATIONS FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY
BE NECESSARY IN THE NEAR FUTURE, BUT WILL GET THROUGH THE WORST
OF THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FIRST. ALSO BE PREPARED FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED DRIFTING OF THE SNOW PRIMARILY INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. IT STAYS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS STRONG RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
LIGHT WAA SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STOUT DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER THAT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO SATURATE BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE.
WHILE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES TO FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE YET THIS
AFTERNOON, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BEGIN
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY INCREASES IN AREAL
COVERAGE MOSTLY ALONG I-90 AND NORTH, GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
BAND TO SET UP AS A 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND TAKES SHAPE. THIS BAND
IS MOST LIKELY TO FORM ALONG A ROUGH LINE FROM HURON, TO MADISON, TO
LUVERNE MN. WITHIN THIS BAND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED, WITH AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90 SEEING ONLY A DUSTING TO A TENTH OR TWO. SNOW TAPERS OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE MOVES EAST AND DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, WITH THE SURFACE LOW EJECTING OUT OF WYOMING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST AN AREA OF STRONG WAA
WILL PUSH OUR HIGHS INTO THE 30 TO 40S NORTH OF I-90, AND THE 40S TO
50S TO THE SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEAST POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES AND WORKS TO AMPLIFY DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
THE RESULTING BAND OF INTENSIFYING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700 MB LAYER
WILL TRIGGER PRECIPITATION TO FORM ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX,
BUT CHANGE TO RAIN AS IT SINKS SOUTH INTO WARMER TEMPERATURES. RAIN
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX THEN TO ALL SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS TO THE SOUTHEAST SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO INTENSIFY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY. SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. TOTAL SNOWFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AS MENTIONED IN A
PRIOR UPDATE, THE TRACK OF THE STORM HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS, BUT HAS HELD STEADY WITH THE
12Z RUN TODAY. IF THE NORTHWARD SHIFT CONTINUES SNOW TOTALS
WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE MORE. HOWEVER, IF THE MODEL TRENDS OF
THE PAST FEW YEARS HOLDS, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHIFT SOUTHWARD
IN TRACK AT 24-36 HOURS OUT. WHILE I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS FOR
THE CURRENT MODEL RUN, I KEPT THEM MINIMAL.
THERE ARE SEVERAL THREATS WE NEED TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FIRST, PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA MAY SEE A LIGHT GLAZE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
ICE ACCUMULATION BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.
SECOND, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG CAA IN
THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY INCREASING, STRONG WIND
GUSTS SUNDAY. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS, HAVE BOOSTED WINDS
WITH A 66% NBM AND 33% NBM90 BLEND. GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITY MAY DECREASE TO LESS THAN 1/4
OF A MILE AT TIMES, AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE
DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD TO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. CONSIDERING THE RISKS FOR ICE AND SNOW,
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY UNTIL 7 AM
MONDAY. DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK HAVE FOREGONE A
BLIZZARD WARNING AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER AN UPGRADE WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND, PLEASE ENSURE
YOU HAVE AN ALTERNATIVE IN MIND AND THAT YOUR VEHICLE IS
PREPARED FOR WINTER TRAVEL.
THIRD, WIND CHILLS WILL BE VERY COLD MONDAY MORNING, FALLING TO
MINUS 20 TO MINUS 25. WIND CHILLS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY BUT
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SUB-ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY BUT COLD, WITH HIGHS AROUND 10-20 DEGREES F.
MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO. CHANCES FOR SNOW RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, IN THE 30S TO 40S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY WITH A NICE WARMING TREND INTO THE 40S AND
50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND 50S TO 60S FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG INCOMING WINTER STORM. BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS WILL BECOME EASTERLY LATE THIS
EVENING, AND NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT, GUSTING 30-35 KTS. GUSTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, PEAKING MID-MORNING BETWEEN 45-50 KTS. A BLIZZARD WARNING
IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG HIGHWAY 14 THIS EVENING.
AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF I-90 THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE RAIN, WITH SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE RAIN BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX TO ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BY SUNRISE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES, 1+ INCH/HOUR. RAPIDLY
ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY TO IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS
AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER, THE BLOWING SNOW RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL DEGRADE FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR AND
POSSIBLE LIFR AT TIMES UNDER HEAVY SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SDZ062-066-067.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SDZ068>071.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR SDZ040-056.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR SDZ038-039-052>055.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ050-057>061-063>065.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR SDZ050-057>061-063>065.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ098.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR IAZ001.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ013-014.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...AJP
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