240
FXUS63 KFSD 151957
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
257 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH ON A DECLINING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. LOCATIONS WEST
OF I- 29 WILL SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COME TO AN END BY 7 PM
THIS EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THIS ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TO 1 AM.
- STRONG WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
35-55 MPH WITH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-90 WHERE A HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- WITH BREEZY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILLS
DOWN TO -20F TO -30F ARE EXPECTED. THUS, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF I- 29. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM MONDAY MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE BLIZZARD PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED UP
TO 35-55 MPH, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. SNOW
CONTINUES TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH THE WINDS IN PLACE, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY WANING THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW WEAK SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MORE. THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRYING OUT SO IT
WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR THIS SNOW SHOWER POSSIBILITY. LOCALLY
LOWERED VISIBILITY WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS. WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-29 SEEING CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE, HAVE DECIDED TO EXPIRE THE BLIZZARD WARNING EARLY AT 7 PM
THIS EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF I-29. HOWEVER, DID ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS ARE DUE TO CONTINUED BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS. THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM TO 1 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS IN
PLACE, WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO THE -20F TO -30F RANGE, WITH THE
COLDEST WIND CHILLS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. THUS A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA AND IS IN EFFECT FROM
1 AM TO 11 AM MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A COLD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE
RIDGING BEGINS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH A STEEPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-29, WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THIS AREA THOUGH ON A DECLINING TREND. WITH A
COLD HIGH IN PLACE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW 20S, COLDEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW PACK IS. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE POSITIVE AND
NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) STRENGTHENING
ALOFT. THIS WAA ALSO LOOKS TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. WITH THE WAA INCREASING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT,
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MIXED. IT LOOKS TO BEGIN AS MAINLY SNOW AND
TRANSLATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THERE COULD BE AN SMALL MIXED
PRECIPITATION ZONE WHERE SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE. AFTER THIS SMALL TRANSITION ZONE, PRECIPITATION WILL TURN
TO ALL RAIN. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATIONS AND PRECIPITATION
TYPES BUT THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A BROAD 20-60% CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON, SOUTH DAKOTA TO SIOUX FALLS, SOUTH
DAKOTA, TO STORM LAKE, IOWA LINE TO EXCEED ONE INCH OF SNOW.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO NEAR SEASONABLE TO WARM WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS 40S, 50S, 60S, AND EVEN INTO THE 70S. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARDS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN QUITE VARIED AS THEY
BOTH SPAN ALL FLIGHT CATEGORIES. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
LOWEST IN FALLING SNOW WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR/LIFR LEVELS. THESE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE PRIMARILY
LOCATED UNDER A BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM KMJQ DOWN TO
KSUX. LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ARE
BEGINNING TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THOUGH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS STILL RESULTING IN INTERMITTENT REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. HOWEVER,
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND POTENTIALLY CEILINGS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT DUE TO PERSISTING GUSTY WINDS BLOWING AROUND THE FRESHLY
FALLEN SNOW. WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WHILE REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ062-066>071.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ067-070-071.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ040-
056-071.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ040-056.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-039-
050-052>055-057>061-063>065.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR SDZ038-039-050-052>055-057>061-063>065.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-063-
068-069.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ098.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
089-090-097.
IA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ001-012-020-031.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
020>022-031-032.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-
021-022-032.
NE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ013-
014.
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MEYERS
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