706
FXUS63 KFSD 161704
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1204 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MN WITH VALUES IN THE -5 TO -15 DEGREE RANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND WINTRY MIX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BY TUESDAY. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED, UP TO A GLAZE OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN START TO MIX IN.
- CONDITIONS WILL TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK THROUGH
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST
IA EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING AND
VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z
AND SEE NO REASON TO EXTEND THAT. OTHERWISE THE COLD AIR IS HERE
AND THE COLD ADVISORY THROUGH 11 AM WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND
CHILLS OF -20 TO -30 THROUGH THEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE BLIZZARD PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED UP
TO 35-55 MPH, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. SNOW
CONTINUES TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH THE WINDS IN PLACE, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY WANING THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW WEAK SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MORE. THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRYING OUT SO IT
WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR THIS SNOW SHOWER POSSIBILITY. LOCALLY
LOWERED VISIBILITY WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS. WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-29 SEEING CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE, HAVE DECIDED TO EXPIRE THE BLIZZARD WARNING EARLY AT 7 PM
THIS EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF I-29. HOWEVER, DID ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS ARE DUE TO CONTINUED BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS. THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM TO 1 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS IN
PLACE, WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO THE -20F TO -30F RANGE, WITH THE
COLDEST WIND CHILLS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. THUS A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA AND IS IN EFFECT FROM
1 AM TO 11 AM MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A COLD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE
RIDGING BEGINS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH A STEEPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-29, WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THIS AREA THOUGH ON A DECLINING TREND. WITH A
COLD HIGH IN PLACE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW 20S, COLDEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW PACK IS. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE POSITIVE AND
NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) STRENGTHENING
ALOFT. THIS WAA ALSO LOOKS TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. WITH THE WAA INCREASING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT,
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MIXED. IT LOOKS TO BEGIN AS MAINLY SNOW AND
TRANSLATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THERE COULD BE AN SMALL MIXED
PRECIPITATION ZONE WHERE SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE. AFTER THIS SMALL TRANSITION ZONE, PRECIPITATION WILL TURN
TO ALL RAIN. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATIONS AND PRECIPITATION
TYPES BUT THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A BROAD 20-60% CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON, SOUTH DAKOTA TO SIOUX FALLS, SOUTH
DAKOTA, TO STORM LAKE, IOWA LINE TO EXCEED ONE INCH OF SNOW.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO NEAR SEASONABLE TO WARM WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS 40S, 50S, 60S, AND EVEN INTO THE 70S. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MIX OF VFR AND MVFR BY
TUESDAY. TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, MOST AREAS REMAIN CLEAR
THIS AFTERNOON. BESIDES BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, MORE PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX.
FOR EACH TAF SITE, USED PROB30 GROUPS TO TIME PRECIPITATION IN
BEFORE MAKING IT PREVAILING. OTHERWISE, MORE NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO END THE TAF.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...08
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...05/08
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