439
FXUS63 KFSD 170526
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1226 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WIND CHILLS CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WITH VALUES IN THE -5
TO -20 DEGREE RANGE.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND WINTRY MIX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST, ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. A
GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE AS SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIX IN.
- CONDITIONS TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND
PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SD.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE
OF ZERO TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ALSO
PLUMMET BELOW ZERO.
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW, NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH SOME SLIGHT SLOWING. BROAD WAA AND SOME F-
GEN SHOULD PROVIDE THE CATALYSTS FOR PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN QUESTION REMAINS SATURATION. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
STRUGGLE TO SATURATE, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AND A LOSS
OF SATURATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SECOND QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE
TIMING OF WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WARM NOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA, BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ON IF
THIS IS DEEP ENOUGH AND WARM ENOUGH TO SHIFT ANY SNOW TO SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN IF TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE.
FINALLY, GFS, NAM AND HI-RES DERIVATIVES OF THE NAM ARE SHOWING A
SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO THE NE/IA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE MORE MIXED
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, SATURATION ISSUES LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE BETWEEN
THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND THE BUFFALO RIDGE - AS AFTERNOON GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED THIS A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST. LATEST NBM IS CURRENTLY CARRYING
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW BETWEEN THE JAMES
RIVER AND I-29, BUT THIS MIGHT BE INFLUENCED BY THE SECONDARY AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IN SOME OF THE MODELS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
FOR THE REST OF THE 17.00Z GUIDANCE TO COME IN.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK ONWARD, ALTHOUGH HOW MUCH NEW SNOW WE RECEIVE TUESDAY AND
SNOW FROM THE WEEKEND MAY SLOW THE WARMING TREND SLIGHTLY. BUT STILL
ANTICIPATE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A COLDER DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE
AREA, MUCH COLDER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOST AREAS SITTING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR THE
DAY, THERE LIKELY WON'T BE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE COLD AS INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS KEEPS A BITE AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, ONCE WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING, IT'LL BE
BACK INTO THE FREEZER FOR THE NIGHT AS LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS AND
LINGERING COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) HELP TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO WITH THE COLDEST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. AS A RESULT, WE'LL LIKELY SEE A
RETURN TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WITH VALUES IN -5 TO -15
DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH OUR DEEPEST SNOWPACK WHICH IS
SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. LASTLY, REFREEZING SNOWMELT COULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS IN ANY AREAS THAT SEE ANY MELTING
TODAY DUE TO THE SUN ANGLE.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: LOOKING INTO TUESDAY, OUR MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO
BE ON OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES (50%-80%). LOOKING ALOFT,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP USHER IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS INCREASING LIFT AND FRONTAL FORCING
INTERACT WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTIVE (WAA) REGIME, POCKETS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD BY MID-MORNING THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARDS INTO OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH AN INCH
OR LESS OF SNOW EXPECTED, WARMING 700-800 MB AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS COULD LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO A SLEET
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MIX AT TIMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH ALSO COULD RESULT IN UP TO A GLAZE OF ICE IN SOME AREAS.
NONETHELESS, ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR WITH MAINLY
TEMPORARY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH FALLING SNOW AND ADDITIONAL
SLICK SPOT BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. WITH THIS IN MIND, MAKE SURE
TO TAKE IT SLOW WHEN MAKING THOSE EVENING COMMUTES! LOOKING INTO THE
MIDWEEK, BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP US IN
CONTINUOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, AS WAA CONTINUES TO BUILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK; WE'LL LIKELY FOLLOW A WARMING TREND AS OUR SNOWPACK
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, EXPECT
HIGHS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S ON TUESDAY
TO THE 50S TO POTENTIALLY LOW 70S BY THURSDAY WITH THE WARMEST
CONDITIONS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
THE WEEKEND: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, COLD FRONTS WILL
SWING THROUGH ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THEY WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS. SHIFTING GEARS TO TEMPERATURES,
THE STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. WITH THIS
IN MIND, WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW RECORDS ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
IN SIOUX FALLS (73|2022), MITCHELL (77|1994), SIOUX CITY (79|2015)
NONETHELESS, A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE ON THE HORIZON AS QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT
LEADING TO A RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO 50S HEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE AS PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS - TRACKING WEST TO EAST. IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE AND EXPECT SNOW AS THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SNOW WILL LEAD
TO SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLY VERY PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY
WINDS LEADING TO SOME BLSN. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS
PRECIPITATION ENDS, LEADING TO A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE. LEFT PRECIP
MENTION AS ALL SN FOR NOW, GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OF
ANY MIXED PRECIP. MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND TURN SOUTHERLY. GUSTS
THROUGH THE DAY AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS TAPER OFF AFTER
SUNSET INTO THE EVENING, SHIFTING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME LLWS AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD, BUT GIVEN MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND LOW CONFIDENCE, HAVE
OMITTED FOR NOW.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...SG
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