505
FXUS63 KFSD 021013
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
513 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN SNOW.
CLOSE ATTENTION NEEDS TO BE PAID TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA IN
SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN IF SLEET IS NOT AS PREVALENT.
- MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN/TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY FRIDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST
IA. SEVERE WEATHER UNLIKELY BUT SOME DIME SIZED HAIL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.
- FRIDAY IS A TRICKY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOULD BE MOSTLY
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. ENOUGH OF AN ICING THREAT THAT SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCES
FROM THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
- SATURDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. THIS
WOULD CAUSE LOCALLY RAPID DROPS IN VISIBILITY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, THE FORECAST MOSTLY REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH AREAS OF RAIN, SNOW, AND WINTRY MIX PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE IT WASN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE PICTURE,
THERE HAS BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED
AS DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
LAST NIGHT EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF SOME OF OUR MOISTURE SUPPLY.
HOWEVER, WITH THAT PUSHING FURTHER EASTWARDS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY; WE'RE STARTING TO SEE A SURGE IN LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT. FROM HERE, EXPECT THIS PUSH OF DEVELOPING ACTIVITY TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARDS FOLLOWING A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO
MARSHALL LINE THIS MORNING. ALONG AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LINE, EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THE LAST OBSERVATION FROM SIOUX CITY (KSUX) SUGGESTING UP
TO 0.25" IN/HR RATES IN THESE AREAS.
WEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE, A DEVELOPING DRY SLOT
ACCORDING TO LOW-LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL
LIKELY KEEP ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FINALLY,
AS THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIFTS INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR AND BUFFALO RIDGE IN
SOUTHWESTERN MN; WE'RE STILL EXPECTING A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN, SLEET, OR A MIXTURE OF BOTH. MY EYES ARE STILL FIXATED ON
THE BUFFALO RIDGE SPECIFICALLY SINCE THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE
HREF'S FRAM GUIDANCE AND HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF A 0.25" TO 0.50" AN INCH OF
ICE ACCUMULATIONS. NONETHELESS, SOME OF THIS WILL BE MITIGATED
BY WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES. THE REAL QUESTION IS BY HOW MUCH
THOUGH. EITHER WAY, WE WILL SHOULD BE FINDING OUR HERE WITHIN
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. LASTLY, MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE STILL
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE SO MAKE SURE TO DRIVE TO THE CONDITIONS!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE THERMAL PROFILE IS EVERYTHING.
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IN THE LOWEST 5 THOUSAND
FEET WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET OR
SNOW FALLS. THE BIGGEST THINGS TO WATCH WILL BE THE TRENDS IN THE
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE
SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURE AND WHETHER OR NOT THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE REMAINS ABOVE 32 OR AT OR BELOW 32. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS VERY SMALL. THE
HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR THOSE
AREAS. FOR NOW WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA, BELIEVE THAT SLEET WILL BE
MORE ABUNDANT THAN FREEZING RAIN WITH UPWARDS OF A HALF AN INCH TO
AN INCH OF SLEET POTENTIAL. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 AND THE 40S
SOUTH.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS 500-1000 J/KG CAPE MOVE INTO NORTHWEST IA AND
NEARBY LOCATIONS. SEVERE WEATHER UNLIKELY BUT DIME SIZED HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE.AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS HINTING AT MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
THREAT VS. SNOW. WITH SOME INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL ALSO
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY BETTER RATES. BY AFTERNOON THE
POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING A DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA WITH MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF I-29 SEEING PRECIPITATION COME TO AN END.
AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER STILL SEEING SOME LIFT,
FRONTAL FORCING AND SATURATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOWFALL.
THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 300 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING THE DGZ LOWERING AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN AND SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER FROM ABOUT THE SURFACE
TO 850 MB. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOWER DGZ AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF, RAPID DROPS IN VISIBILITY IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER. AS A
NOTE, THE CIPS SNOW SQUALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE TWO HIGHEST
CATEGORIES ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TURN MORE WESTERLY WHICH WILL BRING A BIT OF WARMING. OVERALL THREAT
FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS VERY LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, WITH BRIEF POCKETS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE ONGOING, WITH RAIN FROM I-90 SOUTH. TO THE NORTH AS YOU APPROACH
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR A MIX OF RAIN, RAIN AND SNOW, SLEET, AND
FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THE AREA MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE
FREEZING RAIN IS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. HERE, ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OF
A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS IS POSSIBLE. IMPACTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS,
ESPECIALLY SLIPPERY RUNWAYS ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST AROUND MID-MORNING. CEILINGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SHORTLY
AFTER THAT BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EASTERLY GUSTING 20-25 KTS, WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BECOMING NORTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. WINDS
DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ038>040-055-056.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-097.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...AJP
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