406
FXUS63 KFSD 021657
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1157 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON,
LEAVING LIGHT ICING IN IT'S WAKE ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
- A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWESTERN
IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY, CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT UP TO DIME SIZED HAIL.
- FRIDAY IS A TRICKY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOULD BE MOSTLY
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. ENOUGH OF AN ICING THREAT THAT SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCES
FROM THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
- SATURDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. THIS
WOULD CAUSE LOCALLY RAPID DROPS IN VISIBILITY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, THE FORECAST MOSTLY REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH AREAS OF RAIN, SNOW, AND WINTRY MIX PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE IT WASN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE PICTURE,
THERE HAS BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED
AS DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
LAST NIGHT EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF SOME OF OUR MOISTURE SUPPLY.
HOWEVER, WITH THAT PUSHING FURTHER EASTWARDS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY; WE'RE STARTING TO SEE A SURGE IN LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT. FROM HERE, EXPECT THIS PUSH OF DEVELOPING ACTIVITY TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARDS FOLLOWING A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO
MARSHALL LINE THIS MORNING. ALONG AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LINE, EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THE LAST OBSERVATION FROM SIOUX CITY (KSUX) SUGGESTING UP
TO 0.25" IN/HR RATES IN THESE AREAS.
WEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE, A DEVELOPING DRY SLOT
ACCORDING TO LOW-LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL
LIKELY KEEP ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FINALLY,
AS THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIFTS INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR AND BUFFALO RIDGE IN
SOUTHWESTERN MN; WE'RE STILL EXPECTING A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN, SLEET, OR A MIXTURE OF BOTH. MY EYES ARE STILL FIXATED ON
THE BUFFALO RIDGE SPECIFICALLY SINCE THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE
HREF'S FRAM GUIDANCE AND HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF A 0.25" TO 0.50" AN INCH OF
ICE ACCUMULATIONS. NONETHELESS, SOME OF THIS WILL BE MITIGATED
BY WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES. THE REAL QUESTION IS BY HOW MUCH
THOUGH. EITHER WAY, WE WILL SHOULD BE FINDING OUR HERE WITHIN
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. LASTLY, MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE STILL
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE SO MAKE SURE TO DRIVE TO THE CONDITIONS!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE THERMAL PROFILE IS EVERYTHING.
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IN THE LOWEST 5 THOUSAND
FEET WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET OR
SNOW FALLS. THE BIGGEST THINGS TO WATCH WILL BE THE TRENDS IN THE
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE
SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURE AND WHETHER OR NOT THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE REMAINS ABOVE 32 OR AT OR BELOW 32. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS VERY SMALL. THE
HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR THOSE
AREAS. FOR NOW WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA, BELIEVE THAT SLEET WILL BE
MORE ABUNDANT THAN FREEZING RAIN WITH UPWARDS OF A HALF AN INCH TO
AN INCH OF SLEET POTENTIAL. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 AND THE 40S
SOUTH.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS 500-1000 J/KG CAPE MOVE INTO NORTHWEST IA AND
NEARBY LOCATIONS. SEVERE WEATHER UNLIKELY BUT DIME SIZED HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE.AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS HINTING AT MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
THREAT VS. SNOW. WITH SOME INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL ALSO
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY BETTER RATES. BY AFTERNOON THE
POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING A DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA WITH MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF I-29 SEEING PRECIPITATION COME TO AN END.
AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER STILL SEEING SOME LIFT,
FRONTAL FORCING AND SATURATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOWFALL.
THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 300 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING THE DGZ LOWERING AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN AND SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER FROM ABOUT THE SURFACE
TO 850 MB. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOWER DGZ AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF, RAPID DROPS IN VISIBILITY IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER. AS A
NOTE, THE CIPS SNOW SQUALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE TWO HIGHEST
CATEGORIES ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TURN MORE WESTERLY WHICH WILL BRING A BIT OF WARMING. OVERALL THREAT
FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS VERY LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE LOWER CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH MID-DAY.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN MODERATE RAIN COULD DROP BELOW 2 MILES
BRIEFLY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ038>040-055-056.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-097.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...DUX
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