275
FXUS63 KFSD 021858
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
158 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT ELEVATED AND BRIDGE ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-90. SNOW TOTALS OF A DUSTING TO A COUPLE INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG HIGHWAY 14.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NW
IOWA FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 7AM THROUGH 11AM. SMALL HAIL MOST
LIKELY, BUT A VERY ISOLATED QUARTER REPORT POSSIBLE.
- WRAP AROUND SNOW SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAY BRING BRIEF SLICK ROADS.
- DRY, BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: WE'RE CONTINUING TO WATCH THIS INITIAL
SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL BRING END END TO THE PRECIPITATION IN
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH REPORTS OF MINOR ELEVATED ICING REPORTED
OVER PORTIONS OF SW MINNESOTA AND THE I-29 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
SD. MRMS RADIAL FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ALSO SUPPORT THIS,
WITH FAIRLY LOCALIZED 0.10" TOTALS THROUGH THE RIDGE AREAS. WHILE
A LOW PROBABILITY, PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY STILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT: WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REGION WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURE
A BIT WARMER THAN THE NBM INITIALLY SUGGESTED. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH
THE IMPACTS OF A COLDER NE WIND OUT OF CENTRAL MN THAT COULD BRING
IN MINOR SURFACE COLD ADVECTION BY DAYBREAK. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SPREAD SCATTERED THROUGH
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY
DAYBREAK WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF MODEST LOW-LVL WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL TO SURFACE IMPACTS, WITH SOME
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN WARMER TEMPERATURES REDUCING ICING SOUTH OF I-90.
FRIDAY: TWO THINGS TO WATCH ON FRIDAY. FIRST WILL BE EASTWARD
SPREAD OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK. LATEST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAVORED TREND TOWARDS PARTIAL TO FULL
MELTING OF FALLING HYDROMETEORS, PUSHING FAVORITE P-TYPES TOWARDS
RAIN AND SLEET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL ONCE AGAIN,
THOUGH AS WE'VE SEEN TODAY, WARM ROAD AND GROUND TEMPERATURES
ARE PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICING ON ROADS (EXCEPT FOR
BRIDGES). MOST ICING IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON ELEVATED COOLED
SURFACES. AT THIS TIME, ICING IS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-90, WITH
MEANINGFUL ICING ALONG HIGHWAY 14 INTO SW MINNESOTA. SHOULD
COLDER AIR DEEPEN INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY, A
QUICK 1-3" OF SNOW COULD FALL ALONG A LINE FROM CHAMBERLAIN TO
HURON. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CWA NORTH OF I-90. LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE TEMPERATURES INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR ANY POTENTIAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO ICING.
THE SECOND THING TO WATCH IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ROOTED AT THE 800 MB LAYER THAT COULD APPROACH 1000
J/KG. THE INTENSIFICATION OF FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION AND A SHARP
CONVERGENCE ZONE COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NW IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
BY MID-MORNING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS MINIMAL, BUT WITH FREEZING
LEVELS BETWEEN 9-10K FT AGL, SMALL HAIL TO ISOLATED QUARTER HAIL
COULD BE POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT: AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN, AN EXPANSIVE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE AREA, POTENTIALLY SHUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION OR CONVERTING IT
OVER TO DRIZZLE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
THROUGH GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE SOUTHWARD EXTEND OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TODAY.
SATURDAY: WE'LL SEE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CROSSES INTO MN/WI. SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOUNDINGS DO NO SEEM TO BE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
LAPSE RATES BY THE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS, AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
30 TO 35 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE OVER THE WEST COAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DRAINS INTO THE PLAINS. A QUICK FLIP AROUND TO GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THANKFULLY AFTER
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FIRE WEATHER RISKS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. A
BRIEF SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY PROVIDE
OUR ONLY CHANCE OF EXCEEDING NORMAL THIS WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RISE AGAIN BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE LOWER CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH MID-DAY.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN MODERATE RAIN COULD DROP BELOW 2 MILES
BRIEFLY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR SDZ040-055-056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR SDZ038-039-052>054-057-058.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-097.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-097.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...DUX
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