246
FXUS63 KFSD 040538
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1238 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX WILL BECOME MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY, BUT SLICK TRAVEL,
ESPECIALLY ELEVATED SURFACES, AND LOWER VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
WILL STILL BRING SOME HAZARDS.
- WRAP AROUND SNOW ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAY BRING BRIEF SLICK ROADS AND LOCALIZED, BRIEF
DROPS IN VISIBILITY.
- DRY, BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO NEXT
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME SPOTTY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS,
WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES NEEDED. LOOKING AT CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A VERY CLEAR DRY SLOT THAT HAS BROKEN SATURATION IN THE DGZ
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
WELL SATURATED RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS
NORTH OF I-90, AND ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 14. HERE AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A TRACE TO A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ONE OTHER THING TO BE
AWARE OF FOR THIS AREA AS WE HEAD TOWARD MID-MORNING IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SQUALLS. SOUNDINGS SHOW DGZ RESATURATING AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW. AT THE
SURFACE MODEST WIND AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS 50-100
J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 925 MB FRONTOGENESIS COMBINE WITH PRESSURE
RISES AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA TO CREATE CONDITIONS THAT
ARE MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SQUALLS. RISKS INCLUDE BRIEF,
HEAVY SNOWFALL AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4 OF A
MILE OR LESS. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN THIS AREA, BE PREPARED FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS. RISKS FOR SNOW SQUALLS DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTH OF I-90 SHOULD SEE INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
DRIZZLE EVENTUALLY BECOMING VERY LIGHT SNOW AS TEMPERATURES COOL
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES ITS TIME SPINNING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND SO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM
THE WEST. BY MID-MORNING WIDE SPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL COOL BACK TO AROUND OR BELOW
FREEZING AGAIN, ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-
90. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES NORTH OF I-90. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DRY SLOT
KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION AT BAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. PERIODIC
SATURATION IN THE DGZ NORTH OF I-90 SHOULD LEAD TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW BUT WITH A WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 30
ACCUMULATION MIGHT BE DIFFICULT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING PRECIPITATION WILL
REDEVELOP. SOME OF THE BETTER WRAP AROUND POTENTIAL COMES LATER
TONIGHT AS THE WAVE IS EXITING AND WILL SEE IF AN INCH OR TWO COULD
ACCUMULATE NEAR HIGHWAY 14. NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE DRIZZLE, MAYBE
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN FULLY
SATURATED.
AS THE WAVE EXITS LATE TONIGHT, DEEPER MIXING AND A STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH ON SATURDAY. SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE MIXED LAYER
COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NEAR
AND NORTH OF I-90 AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER FROM LATE MORNING INTO
MID AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF I-90 SATURATION IN THE DGZ IS JUST NOT THERE
SO THOSE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WOULD BE A QUICK DROP IN VISIBILITY THAT WOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED.
A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND FOR NOW DOES NOT LOOK TO PROVIDE ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND COULD BRING A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE MARSHALL
MN AREA BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR.
A BIT OF A RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS THIS WAVE PASSES
BUT COLD ADVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BRING A BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING A BIGGER WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S.
THE GENERAL TREND FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE FOR WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TO TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BE LOCKED IN PLACE BOTH
DAYS SO FOR NOW HIGHS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL. BROAD WARM ADVECTION
MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA, SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
MVFR DOWN TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS PERIOD. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
INTERMITTENT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH OF I-90
ARE MOSTLY SEEING LIGHT SNOW, WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH ARE STILL
SEEING LIGHT RAIN. AS TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN INCH OF SNOW AND A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE
ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS ARE NORTHWEST AND LIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INCREASE
IN THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-
35 KTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
SDZ038>040-052>056.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-097.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...AJP
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...AJP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page