925
FXUS63 KFSD 050943
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
443 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
WITH SPOTTY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK.
BETTER CHANCES FALL ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA ON TUESDAY, BOTH OF WHICH COULD BE
LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
- WARMER DAYS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE BREEZIER
SIDE, RESULTING IN AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
- A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND MAY
BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
FORECAST IS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MODEST WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS OF 4 AM.
PREVIOUS UPDATE BELOW ADDRESSES UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
WARMING TODAY WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. THAT SAID, DEEP WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD FAVOR STRONG MIXING AND HAVE NUDGED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO, THOUGH THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR MORE WARMING IN THE BROADER
GUIDANCE SPECTRUM WITH HIGHS STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
50TH PERCENTILE OF THE LATEST NBM. THE MILD, BREEZY CONDITIONS
BRING A RETURN OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SD WHERE PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE LOWEST OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS.
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
BE SPOTTY, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOCUSED ALONG A MID-LEVEL FRONT
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY, THEN IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA ON TUESDAY. IN BOTH CASES, THE
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR PERHAPS
A RAIN/SNOW MIX. HOWEVER, WITH ONLY A LOW (<20%) PROBABILITY
THAT 48-72 HOUR TOTAL QPF WILL EXCEED 0.25", SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY FOR WEDNESDAY, AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO
A BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA, AND THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT SAW SNOWMELT
EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD ISSUES FROM OCCURRING, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN
CASE WINDS GO LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL ON TRACK TO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S BY DAYBREAK.
AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO GET A FEW RAIN SHOWERS GOING
PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS IS WHERE SOUNDINGS
SHOW JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS TO OVERCOME THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST, THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH FOR
THE RAIN TO OVERCOME, SO ONLY EXPECTING VIRGA FARTHER WEST
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS/VIRGA MAY ALSO BRING DOWN SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE AROUND 50 DEGREES ALONG HIGHWAY 14. THE
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY HIGH
TEMPERATURE WISE DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, AS
EVIDENCED BY A DIFFERENCE OF AROUND TWENTY DEGREES BETWEEN THE
NBM 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES. A FASTER COLD FRONT WOULD MEAN
HIGHS STAY MAINLY IN THE LOW 40S ALONG HIGHWAY 14, BUT A SLOWER
FRONT THAN EXPECTED COULD RESULT IN HIGHS APPROACHING THE 60
DEGREE MARK THERE.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING
WITH A PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COLDER AIR FILTERING IN WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOW 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S/LOW
30S SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY COME TO AN END BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST AND DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. WITH THE CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE LOWS WILL AGAIN BE
IN THE 20S.
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MN, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. A NICE LITTLE BUMP IN
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND IN THE 50S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME FALLING TEMPERATURES LATE AFTERNOON NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90
AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHILLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND 20S
ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND A
NORTH WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. FOR NOW AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER MT ON TUESDAY AND AHEAD WILL SWING A
WAVE ONTO THE PLAINS. OVERALL THE THREAT FOR MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION IS LOW, BUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. A QUICK LOOK AT THE SOUNDINGS HINTS THAT SATURATION ALOFT
MOVES IN, BUT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATE A BIT, THE UPPER LEVEL BEGIN TO DRY OUT SO THE OVERLAP WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN
MAINLY NORTHWEST IA WHICH COULD HELP SUSTAIN A LITTLE BIT OF
PRECIPITATION.
THIS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE IN MT WILL SWING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND BRING A SHOT OF WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WITH THIS
WAVE WILL BE TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS SHOULD BRING OUR NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
LATEST CANADIAN AND GEFS 50TH PERCENTILE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SHOWING A
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME WILE THE
ECMWF ENS IS HANGING ON TO DRYER CONDITIONS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE ECMWF INDICATING A WEAKER WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS AS THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
VERY PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE
WINDS CAN GO LIGHT, BUT IMPACTS TO THE TAF SITES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH DAYBREAK. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY, GUSTING TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, WITH VIRGA
ELSEWHERE. THESE SHOWERS/VIRGA MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN AN ISOLATED
40 KT WIND GUST TO THE SURFACE, BUT CHANCES FOR THIS ARE LOW (<15%).
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...JH/SAMET
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SAMET
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