181
FXUS63 KFSD 051829
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
129 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
WITH SPOTTY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK.
BETTER CHANCES FALL ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AND
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA ON TUESDAY, BOTH OF WHICH COULD BE LIGHT
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
- WARMER DAYS WEDNESDAY AND THEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL
ALSO BE ON THE BREEZIER SIDE, RESULTING IN AREAS OF ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. THE WEEKEND WILL SEE BREEZIER CONDITIONS BUT ALSO
HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS.
- A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND MAY
BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
A QUICK SHOT OF MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FAIRLY
STRONG FORCING WITHIN AND JUST BELOW THE DGZ AS WELL AS SOME VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BAND OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT AS THE
FORCING MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY.
MONDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND QUITE
A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 14 WITH 40S NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90.
A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BRING A QUICK
SHOT OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING NEAR AND EAST OF I-29. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION AND THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN COULD SNEAK
INTO THE LOWER 30S WHICH MIGHT INTRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. OVERALL IN THAT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME A QUICK
INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR KSUX INTO NORTHEAST NE.
ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME CHANCES LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND 50S ON
THURSDAY.
THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING BETTER LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO TRANSPORT NORTHWARD. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE OUTPUT STILL INDICATING QUITE A FEW MEMBERS
SUPPORTING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THIS TIME WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AND BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST MN COULD
PRODUCE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. OTHERWISE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER
TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST AROUND 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DECREASING LATER TONIGHT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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