689
FXUS63 KFSD 052350
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
650 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
WITH SPOTTY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK.
BETTER CHANCES FALL ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AND
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA ON TUESDAY, BOTH OF WHICH COULD BE LIGHT
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
- WARMER DAYS WEDNESDAY AND THEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL
ALSO BE ON THE BREEZIER SIDE, RESULTING IN AREAS OF ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. THE WEEKEND WILL SEE BREEZIER CONDITIONS BUT ALSO
HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS.
- A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND MAY
BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
A QUICK SHOT OF MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FAIRLY
STRONG FORCING WITHIN AND JUST BELOW THE DGZ AS WELL AS SOME VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BAND OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT AS THE
FORCING MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY.
MONDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND QUITE
A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 14 WITH 40S NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90.
A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BRING A QUICK
SHOT OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING NEAR AND EAST OF I-29. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION AND THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN COULD SNEAK
INTO THE LOWER 30S WHICH MIGHT INTRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. OVERALL IN THAT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME A QUICK
INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR KSUX INTO NORTHEAST NE.
ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME CHANCES LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND 50S ON
THURSDAY.
THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING BETTER LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO TRANSPORT NORTHWARD. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE OUTPUT STILL INDICATING QUITE A FEW MEMBERS
SUPPORTING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THIS TIME WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AND BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
A FEW SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA TO START THE
PERIOD. A 44 KT WIND GUST WAS REPORTED JUST EAST OF THE AREA
ABOUT AN HOUR AGO WITH THESE SHOWERS, SO CAN'T RULE OUT A
STRONGER WIND GUST OR TWO LOCALLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR FROM KCKP
TO KSLB. SOME MVFR STRATUS WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA
TONIGHT, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST EAST OF KFSD AND KHON
AT THIS TIME, THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN INTO MONDAY, THOUGH IT WON'T BE AS
BREEZY AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS OF
15-20 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SAMET
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