982
FXUS63 KFSD 060943
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
443 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
WITH SPOTTY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK.
BETTER CHANCES FALL ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA ON TUESDAY, BOTH OF WHICH COULD BE LIGHT
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
- WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
- FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE,
WITH A WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
DRY NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION FROM
REACHING THE GROUND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD BASES STILL AT
OR ABOVE 7-8KFT AGL IN AREAS WITH WEAK RADAR ECHOES SOUTH OF
I-90. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO DELAY ONSET OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING, AND ALSO LIMIT NORTHWARD EXTENT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IF LIGHT SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN AROUND A
HALF INCH OR LESS AND ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY MELT OFF QUICKLY AS
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 THIS AFTERNOON.
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR DIVES AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON
TUESDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME AND AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20
TUESDAY MORNING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL THEN
EXPAND INTO MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
A QUICK SHOT OF MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FAIRLY
STRONG FORCING WITHIN AND JUST BELOW THE DGZ AS WELL AS SOME VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BAND OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT AS THE
FORCING MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY.
MONDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND QUITE
A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 14 WITH 40S NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90.
A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BRING A QUICK
SHOT OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING NEAR AND EAST OF I-29. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION AND THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN COULD SNEAK
INTO THE LOWER 30S WHICH MIGHT INTRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. OVERALL IN THAT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME A QUICK
INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR KSUX INTO NORTHEAST NE.
ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME CHANCES LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND 50S ON
THURSDAY.
THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING BETTER LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO TRANSPORT NORTHWARD. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE OUTPUT STILL INDICATING QUITE A FEW MEMBERS
SUPPORTING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THIS TIME WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AND BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
PATCHY AREAS OF STRATUS ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO
START THE PERIOD, AND ADDITIONAL AREAS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA HEADING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF THIS
MVFR STRATUS TO IMPACT KHON FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER THIS
MORNING, BUT DOESN'T LOOK TO QUITE MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KFSD AT
THIS TIME.
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY, BRINGING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS INCLUDING AT KSUX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FADE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WON'T BE AS STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, GUSTING UP TO 15-20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...JH/SAMET
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SAMET
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