479
FXUS63 KFSD 061643
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1143 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
WITH SPOTTY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK.
BETTER CHANCES FALL ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA ON TUESDAY, BOTH OF WHICH COULD BE LIGHT
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
- WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
- FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE,
WITH A WARMING TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITY BRINGING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
DRY NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION FROM
REACHING THE GROUND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD BASES STILL AT
OR ABOVE 7-8KFT AGL IN AREAS WITH WEAK RADAR ECHOES SOUTH OF
I-90. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO DELAY ONSET OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING, AND ALSO LIMIT NORTHWARD EXTENT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IF LIGHT SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN AROUND A
HALF INCH OR LESS AND ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY MELT OFF QUICKLY AS
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 THIS AFTERNOON.
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR DIVES AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON
TUESDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME AND AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20
TUESDAY MORNING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL THEN
EXPAND INTO MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
A QUICK SHOT OF MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FAIRLY
STRONG FORCING WITHIN AND JUST BELOW THE DGZ AS WELL AS SOME VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BAND OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT AS THE
FORCING MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY.
MONDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND QUITE
A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 14 WITH 40S NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90.
A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BRING A QUICK
SHOT OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING NEAR AND EAST OF I-29. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION AND THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN COULD SNEAK
INTO THE LOWER 30S WHICH MIGHT INTRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. OVERALL IN THAT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME A QUICK
INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR KSUX INTO NORTHEAST NE.
ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME CHANCES LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND 50S ON
THURSDAY.
THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING BETTER LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO TRANSPORT NORTHWARD. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE OUTPUT STILL INDICATING QUITE A FEW MEMBERS
SUPPORTING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THIS TIME WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AND BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
IN MOST AREAS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT MID-DAY AS A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NORTH WIND BEGINS TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.
VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY LINGER ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY
TOWARDS SUX, BUT IN MOST AREAS THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND, BUT INSTEAD IS VISIBLE AS VIRGA.
WE'LL SEE CEILINGS REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND HIGHWAY 20. MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW SNOW
BAND DEVELOPING AFTER DARK NEAR OR LIKELY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.
AVIATION INTERESTS NEAR SUX WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS BAND, AS
IT WOULD HAVE IMPACTS IF IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD. ATTM, WILL ONLY
INCLUDE A PROB30 GIVEN BETTER FOCUS TO THE SOUTH.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...JH
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...DUX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page