059
FXUS63 KFSD 070555
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1255 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NARROW SNOW BAND EXPECTED NEAR OR MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
20 INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY TRAVEL SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY
TOWARDS OMAHA OR DES MOINES MAY BE IMPACTED.
- A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL, AND EXCEEDING NORMAL
NEXT WEEKEND.
- A FEW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
BY SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
STILL ON TRACK TO SEE A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOP MOSTLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. MOST OF THE
07.00Z CAMS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF OUR
AREA, WITH THE HRRR AND HRW-FV3 AS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS
LOCALLY, SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
HOWEVER, WITH THE BETTER FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND STILL SOME DRY AIR FOR THE SNOW TO INITIALLY
OVERCOME, DIDN'T CHANGE AMOUNTS ALL THAT MUCH FROM THE EARLIER
FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT MOST AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR FROM FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO WESTERN IOWA TO PICK UP
A HALF AN INCH OR LESS, LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH ON THE NEBRASKA
SIDE. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND WITH THIS BAND OF SNOW IS
THAT SOME OF IT WILL FALL DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE, SO BE
MINDFUL OF THAT BEFORE YOU HEAD OUT ON THE ROAD.
OTHERWISE, DID BLEND IN SOME OF THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES
AND DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS LEADING TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
OPTIMAL COOLING. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS OVER THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOW BAND WILL DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING TUESDAY, AND AS WE LOSE SATURATION IN THE DGZ BEHIND IT,
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED AS LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AS THIS DRIZZLE OCCURS, SO TRAVEL
IMPACTS FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE IT STARTS SOONER IN THE MORNING
AND/OR TEMPERATURES WARM SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE TUESDAY
WILL BE A BREEZY AND CHILLY APRIL DAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25-35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON,
STRONGEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST IOWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: A VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX DRIVEN BY 650:700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH IN MOST AREAS, A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER FOCUSED AROUND 850 MB
WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE, VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN 10+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TONIGHT: CAMS REALLY PICKING UP ON A GREAT NW TO SE ORIENTED
MESOSCALE BANDED FEATURE DEVELOPING AFTER DARK, MOSTLY IMPACTING
AREAS ALONG OR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. GIVEN INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
BAND, ANY TRAVELERS HEADING SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY TOWARDS OMAHA WILL
NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THERE
REMAINS SOME VARIABILITY IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION, WITH HRRR FOCUSED TOO FAR
NORTH MOST OF THIS MORNING. HAVE FAVORED THE NAM/RAP FOR UPDATES
OVERNIGHT, BUT WE'LL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. FURTHER NORTH,
AN EASTERLY WIND AND SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S, SOME 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY: WEAK MID-LVL FLOW WILL KEEP VORTICITY STREAMING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. EVENTUALLY, 925:850 MB WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY, ALLOWING WARM ADVECTION TO SPREAD BACK NORTHWARD.
EVENTUALLY A DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE FIELD WILL TRACK NORTH, AND
WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LVL WARM ADVECTION, CAN'T RULE OUT VERY LIGHT
SNOW, DRIZZLE, OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE WENT WITH
A HIGHER POP BUT LOW QPF FORECAST. THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS SHOULD
AGAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY: BY WEDNESDAY, WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH
TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES, ALLOWING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A FEW LINGERING SPITS
MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, BUT THE
GREATER STORY WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF MUCH WARMER LOW-LVL AIR
NORTHWARD. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TIMED THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS, MEANING LOW-LVL MOISTURE
WILL BE SCOURED EAST QUICKLY IN THE DAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT,
A WARM WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL BOTH LOWER RH VALUES INTO THE 25
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE, BUT ALLOW PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
AND GUSTY 30 MPH WINDS AT TIMES. THIS COMBINATION, ALONG WITH
DRYING OUT FINE FUELS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK, PUSHING COOLER CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RETREAT SLIGHTLY INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S, NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE A BIT AT THE END OF THE WEEK, SUGGESTING AN INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA. THE LATEST NBM WOULD
SUGGEST AROUND A 50% PROBABILITY OF >0.10" OF QPF ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM YANKTON TO JACKSON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
REMAINDER FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY, AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PUSHES
DRIER AIR SOUTHEASTWARD.
NEXT WEEKEND: WE'RE CONTINUING TO SEE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A
PATTERN SHIFT BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. MID-LVL
HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US, ALLOWING
MORE PERSISTENT TROUGHING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS SHIFT IN MID-LVL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH
THE DETERMINISTIC NBM PUSHED TOWARDS THE 75TH PERCENTILE. HOWEVER
ON SUNDAY, THE NBM IS SUGGESTING A 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE IN THE
MID-70S. SHOULD DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP, THEN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ARE POSSIBLE.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED, WE'RE AT LEAST BEGINNING TO
SEE SIGNS OF MORE INSTABILITY TRACKING NORTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND GIVEN THE MORE MERIDIONAL LOW-LVL FLOW TRAJECTORIES.
WHILE A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD CONTINUES IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE,
SEVERAL MACHINE LEARNING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MODELS ARE
INDICATING RISING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR EXTENDS ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD; HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AS OF YET. SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SEE LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE GROUND ALONG THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR AROUND DAYBREAK, INCLUDING AT KSUX. AFTER THE LIGHT
SNOW ENDS, DRIZZLE LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS LOW
STRATUS LINGERS. COULD BE BRIEFLY FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE START,
BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING QUICKLY AFTER
ANY DRIZZLE BEGINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, SPREADING MVFR AND THEN
IFR CIGS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE TURNING FROM THE EAST TO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, GUSTING
TO 25-30 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP
35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER, AND THEN DURING THE EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
COTEAU AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...SAMET
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